高精度地球自转参数预报地理论与算法研究.pdfVIP

相对于LS+AR 模型，在不同预报跨度上预报精度都有不同程度的提高，在中长期预报 中精度提高更为明显，是一种有效的提高地球自转参数预报精度的方法。 6 ．顾及大气角动量（AAM ）与UT1-UTC 联系紧密且UT1-UTC 观测数据中其周期 项和趋势项也具有时变性的特点，在 LS+AR 模型的基础上提出了应用最小二乘与多维 自回归联合预报模型（WLS+MAR ）对UT1-UTC 进行不同跨度的预报。计算结果表明， LS+MAR 模型预报精度要优于LS+AR 模型，而WLS+MAR 模型可进一步提高预报精 度，优于LS+MAR 模型，有效改善UT1-UTC 的预报精度。 本文对提出的方法，都通过了大量实测数据进行了计算验证与比较，取得了较好的 效果，论文成果对提高地球自转参数预报精度和可靠性具有一定的参考和借鉴意义。 关键词：地球定向参数，地球自转，灰色模型，预报，大气角动量 ii Abstract The Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) includes the Polar Motion (PM) parameters, the Length of day (LOD) and the Universal Time (UT1-UTC) or called the Earth’s rotation variation, the Nutation-precession parameters. The PM, UT1-UTC and LOD are also called as Earth Rotation Parameters (ERP). The variation of EOP is very complicated due to multiple excitations. Highly accurate EOP are the necessary parameters to achieve mutual conversion of the celestial reference frame and earth reference frame. However, due to the complexity of data processing, it is difficult to access to these parameters in real-time, about few days delay. In order to meet the needs of the space navigation and positioning, high-precision prediction for EOP is urgent research subject. The thesis focuses on the theories and algorithms of ERP Prediction and the physical excitation to predict ERP. In view of this, the main work and contributions are summarized as follows: 1. In order to improve the short-team prediction accuracy of polar motion, an improved GM (1, 1) model based on error compensation is used to predict PM within 30 days. The new model considers the strong correlation of prediction from the adjacent epochs and compensate the prediction error through the previous prediction residuals of GM(1,1) model. The results show that the new model can greatly improve the prediction accuracy for the polar motion of short-term forec