原创力文档risk factors and a predictive model for under-five mortality in nigeria evidence from nigeria demographic and health survey风险因素和5岁以下儿童死亡率的预测模型在尼日利亚的证据从尼日利亚人口和健康调查.pdfVIP
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risk factors and a predictive model for under-five mortality in nigeria evidence from nigeria demographic and health survey风险因素和5岁以下儿童死亡率的预测模型在尼日利亚的证据从尼日利亚人口和健康调查
Kayode et al. BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth 2012, 12:10
/1471-2393/12/10
RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access
Risk factors and a predictive model for under-five
mortality in Nigeria: evidence from Nigeria
demographic and health survey
Gbenga A Kayode1,2*, Victor T Adekanmbi1,2 and Olalekan A Uthman1,2
Abstract
Background: Under-5 mortality is a major public health challenge in developing countries. It is essential to identify
determinants of under-five mortality (U5M) childhood mortality because these will assist in formulating appropriate
health programmes and policies in order to meet the United Nations MDG goal. The objective of this study was to
develop a predictive model and identify maternal, child, family and other risk factors associated U5M in Nigeria.
Methods: Population-based cross-sectional study which explored 2008 demographic and health survey of Nigeria
(NDHS) with multivariable logistic regression. Likelihood Ratio Test, Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit and
Variance Inflation Factor were used to check the fit of the model and the predictive power of the model was
assessed with Receiver Operating Curve (ROC curve).
Results: This study yielded an excellent predictive model which revealed that the likelihood of U5M among the
children of mothers that had their first marriage at age 20-24 years and ≥ 25 years declined by 20% and 30%
respectively compared to children of those that married before the age of 15 years. Also, the following factors
reduced odds of U5M: health seeking behaviour, breastfeeding children for 18 months, use of contraception,
small family size, having one wife, low birth order, normal birth weight, child spacing, living in urban areas, and
good sanitation.
Conclusions: This study has revealed that maternal, child, family and other factors were important risk factors of
U5M in Nigeria. T
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