temporal percolation of the susceptible network in an epidemic spreading时间敏感网络的渗流流行病蔓延.pdfVIP

Temporal Percolation of the Susceptible Network in an Epidemic Spreading 1 1 1,2 Lucas Daniel Valdez *, Pablo Alejandro Macri , Lidia Adriana Braunstein ´ ´ 1 Instituto de Investigaciones Fısicas de Mar del Plata—Departamento de Fısica, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Mar del Plata, Argentina, 2 Center for Polymer Studies, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America Abstract In this work, we study the evolution of the susceptible individuals during the spread of an epidemic modeled by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) process spreading on the top of complex networks. Using an edge-based compartmental approach and percolation tools, we find that a time-dependent quantity WS (t), namely, the probability that a given neighbor of a node is susceptible at time t, is the control parameter of a node void percolation process involving those nodes on the network not-reached by the disease. We show that there exists a critical time tc above which the giant susceptible component is destroyed. As a consequence, in order to preserve a macroscopic connected fraction of the network composed by healthy individuals which guarantee its functionality, any mitigation strategy should be implemented before this critical time tc . Our theoretical results are confirmed by extensive simulations of the SIR process. Citation: Valdez LD, Macri PA, Braunstein LA (2012) Temporal Percolation of the Susceptible Network in an Epidemic Spreading. PLoS ONE 7(9): e44188. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0044188 Editor