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when do sexual partnerships need to be accounted for in transmission models of human papillomavirus什么时候性伙伴关系需要占人类乳头状瘤病毒的传播模型
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2010, 7, 635-650; doi:10.3390/ijerph7020635
OPEN ACCESS
International Journal of
Environmental Research and
Public Health
ISSN 1660-4601
/journal/ijerph
Article
When Do Sexual Partnerships Need to Be Accounted for in
Transmission Models of Human Papillomavirus?
Heidi Muller and Chris Bauch *
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, N1G2W1 Canada;
E-Mail: hmuller@uoguelph.ca
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: cbauch@uoguelph.ca;
Tel.: +1-519-824-4120; Fax: +1-519-837-0221.
Received: 15 December 2009 / Accepted: 16 February 2010 / Published: 22 February 2010
Abstract: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is often transmitted through sexual partnerships.
However, many previous HPV transmission models ignore the existence of partnerships by
implicitly assuming that each new sexual contact is made with a different person. Here, we
develop a simplified pair model—based on the example of HPV—that explicitly includes
sexual partnership formation and dissolution. We show that not including partnerships can
potentially result in biased projections of HPV prevalence. However, if transmission rates
are calibrated to match empirical pre-vaccine HPV prevalence, the projected prevalence
under a vaccination program does not vary significantly, regardless
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