资源与环境经济学Chapter 1.ppt

Further reading: The Limits to Growth Beyond the Limits Our Common Future Chapter 1 Visions of The Future Contents: 1. Introduction 2. The basic pessimist model 3. The basic optimist model 4. The road ahead 5. Issues 1. Introduction 1.1The Self-extinction Premise 1.2The Use of Models 1.3Thinking About The Future 1.1The Self-extinction Premise Thomas Malthus foresaw that population growth would outstrip the growth of food supply, resulting in starvation and death, if reproduction was encouraged. 1.1The Self-extinction Premise Modern ecologists have suggested that ecological disruption would occur with disastrous consequences for humanity if the “carrying capacity” of environment is exceeded widespread. 1.1The Self-extinction Premise Economists have been concerned with topics such as exhaustible resources and pollution. Now, we’ve come to better understand the relationship between humanity and the environment and how that relationship affects, and is affected by, economic and political institutions. 1. 2 The Use of Models In economics, as in most other disciplines, we use models to illustrate complex subjects, such as relationships between the economy and the environment. In using these models, we should also be sensitive to their limitations. Limitations of models: Models are simplified characterizations of reality. Models may yield conclusions that are dead wrong. Models are useful abstractions that should always be viewed with some skepticism. 1. 3 Thinking About The Future The basic pessimist model(悲观模型) The basic optimist model(乐观模型) 2. The Basic Pessimist Model 2.1 Conclusions of Pessimist Model 2.2 The Nature of the Model 2.1 Conclusions of Pessimist Model The first suggests that within a time span of less than 100 years with no major change in the physical, economic, or social relationships that have traditionally governed world development, society will run out of the nonrenewable resources on which the industrial base depends. When the resources have be