近期中国鸡蛋市场形势及展望.docVIP

近期中国鸡蛋市场形势及展望 张超 于海鹏 许振宝 李干琼 中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部农业信息服务技术重点实验室 X 关注成功！ 加关注后您将方便地在 我的关注中得到本文献的被引频次变化的通知！ 新浪微博 腾讯微博 人人网 开心网 豆瓣网 网易微博 摘????要： 在“H7N9”流感疫情和季节性消费淡季的双重影响下, 2016年9月至2017年5月蛋价8个月持续下跌, 零售价从9.76元/kg跌至6.95元/kg, 累计下跌28.8%, 创近10年新低;蛋鸡养殖效益也逐渐下降并处于亏损状态, 亏损幅度达近5年最大, 蛋鸡存栏量逐渐下降。6月开始, 在蛋鸡存栏下降叠加高温天气抑制蛋鸡生产性能的影响下, 鸡蛋供给减少, 蛋价快速上涨, 主产省批发价1个月内上涨了40.5%, 创单周30.3%的历史最高增幅。展望未来, 随着前期补栏蛋雏鸡以及青年鸡进入产蛋期, 蛋鸡存栏将有所增加, 加之高温对蛋鸡产能的影响消除, 预计鸡蛋市场供给将稳中有增;而随着鸡蛋消费节日效应的消退, 4季度鸡蛋消费呈现稳中回落态势, 鸡蛋价格将进入震荡下行通道, 但整体跌幅有限;蛋鸡养殖将继续保持盈利, 盈利区间有所收窄。建议各生产经营主体一是完善养殖风险防控机制, 降低蛋鸡行业风险;二是完善禽蛋监测预警机制, 引导市场决策;三是提升禽蛋精深加工能力, 促进市场供需稳定;四是大力发展品牌鸡蛋, 提升鸡蛋品质建设。 关键词： 鸡蛋; 价格; 存栏量; 蛋料比; 养殖效益; 监测预警; 展望; 作者简介：张超 (1983—) , 男, 甘肃灵台人, 硕士, 助理研究员, 主要从事农业信息分析与农产品市场监测预警领域研究。E-mail: zhangchao02@caas.cn 收稿日期：2017-09-18 基金：农业部项目“农业信息监测预警” Chinas Egg Market in Recent Years and Its Prospect Zhang Chao Yu Haipeng Xu Zhenbao Li Ganqiong Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences;Key Lab of Agricultural Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture; Abstract： Affecting by the H7 N9 flu epidemic and seasonal low consumption, egg price has been falling from 9.76 yuan per kilogram to 6.95 yuan per kilogram, a historical low record in recent ten years, from Sep.2016 to May 2017, decreased by 28.8 percent. At the same time, the breeding benefits kept decreasing, and gradually came to a state of loss, even got a new low record in recent five years, and the stock of layer was also decreasing. Start from June, the egg supply decreased rapidly under the influences of low stock of layer and hot weather, then it made the price rose over 40.5 percent in some main producing provinces within one month, and also made a record with growth rate of 30.3 percent in one week. Looking forward to the future, as the pre-filling chickens and young chickens coming into the laying period, the stock of laying hens will increase; as the impact of high temperature disappearing, egg market supply is expected to increase