产业供给侧结构性改革的影响及效果研究——基于产业结构变动的视角.DOCVIP

产业供给侧结构性改革的影响及效果研 究——基于产业结构变动的视角 李志俊原鹏飞 安电子科技大学经济与管理学院国家统计局统计 科学研宄所 高技术产业发展和过剩行业去产能是我W产业层面供给侧结构性改革的核心内 容，是未来经济增长新旧动能接续转换的最关键环节。从产业结构变动影响的视 角出发，通过建立动态CGE模型对过剩行业去产能和高技术产业增速提升影响 的考察和对比，对产业供给侧结构性改革的影响和效果进行丫研究。结果表明： 就单一的产业调整策略而言，过剩行业去产能会带来一定负而影响，但其业结 构优化和节能效应非常明显；高技术产业产能提升具有显著的促增长、调结构效 应。就综合性的去产能调结构而言，过剩行业去产能的负面效应能够很容易地被 高技术产业产能提升的带动效疲所对冲，去产能调结构政策的实施不但不会拖 累经济增长，而且能够为经济发展和转型升级带来一系列积极影响。 关键词： 供给侧结构性改革;产业结构调整;产能过剩;高技术产业;动态CGE; 基金：国家社会科学基金项目（17BJY055） Evaluation on the Effects of Supply Side Structural Reform: From the Perspective of Industrial Structure Adjustment LI ZHI-JUN YUAN PENG-FEI School of Economics and Management， Xidian University; Research Institute of Statistical Sciences， National Bureau of Statistics of China: Abstract： From the perspective of the impact of industrial change, in the framework of dynamic computable general equilibrium model, we investigate and compare the impacts of cutting production capacity of excessive industries and increasing production capacity of high tech industries. The results show that: In terms of single industry adjustment strategy, although capacity cutting of excessive industries will bring some negative impacts, but it has obvious effects on the improving of industry structure and energy saving, capacity increasing of high technology industries can improve the industrial structure and promote economic growth. With to comprehensive adjustment of cutting capacity of excessive industries and meanwhile increasing capacity of high tech industries, the negative effects of cutting capacity of excess industries can be easily offset by the driving effects of capacity increasing of high technology industries, thus the comprehensive industry policy will not only drag on economic growth， but also can bring a series of positive effects on economic development and industry upgrading. Keyword： Supply-sjde Structural Reform; Adjustment of Industrial Structure; Excess Production Capacity; High Tech Industries; Dynamic CGE; 、引言 产业结构不合理一直是近年来困扰我