我国出口信用保险对出口贸易的促进作用研究——基于引力模型的多层次、多方式实证分析.docVIP

我国出口信用保险对出口贸易的促进作 用研宄一一基于引力模型的多层次、多 方式实证分析 王国军王德宝 对外经济贸易大学保险学院 2013年我W成为世界第一货物贸易大W，当年出口信用保险保额超过3 000亿 美元，占出口额的比重达到14.8%，但出口信用保险对出口贸易的作用宄竞如 何?采用2002^2013年我国外贸出口额、8个出U行业和出U到84个国家（地区） 的贸易额，以及同期出门信用保险数据作为样本，在扩展引力模型的框架下， 从多个层次、用多种方式研允了出口信用保险与我国外贸出口的关系。实证结果 表明，出口信用保险在增加出口、推动出口市场多元化、支持有关出口行业发展 等方面有较为显著的促进作用；对出口到风险较高的新兴市场国家和地IX，以及 船舶、机电产品等具有较高外部融资需求行业的杠杆作用更为明显;此外，在成 对2008年国际金融危机屮表现出一定的“逆周期”效应。 关键词： 出口信用保险;引力模型;交互效应; A Study on the Export Credit Insurances Support on Chinas Exports—A Multi-level, Multi-method Empirical Analysis based on the Gravity Model WANG Guo iun WANG Debao University of International Business and Economics; Abstract： China became the largest exporter in the world in 2013，with its export credit insurance exceeding USD300 billion，14. 8% of the total exports.Then what are the impacts of export credit insurance on exports of China? Using the data of China’s foreign exports, the trade volume of 8 export industries and their exports to 84 countries (regions) from 2002 to 2013，as well as export credit insurance over the same period, this paper studied their relationship through a multi-level， multi-method empirical analysis based on the expanded gravity model. The empirical results showed that the export credit insurance had a significant role in increasing exports, promoting the diversification of export markets and supporting the development of export-oriented industries;its leverage effects on exports to riskier emerging market countries and regions, and on industries with higher external financing needs such as shipbuilding， mechanical and electrical products were even more obvious.Besides, export credit insurance showed some “counter-cyclical” effects in response to the international financial crisis in 2008. Keyword： export credit insurance; gravity model; interactive effect; 一、引言 作为WTO补贴与反补贴条款项下允许的出U促进政策，出U信用保险是政府为 鼓励出门而实行的一种信用担保，能够有效防范出门企业的收汇风险，鼓励企 业运用更为灵活、更易被接受的支付方式开拓市场，从而促进对外贸易的稳定增 长。据伯尔尼协会（国际信用和投资保险人协会）统计，每年全球贸易额的 12%^ 15%是在出口信用保险的支持下实现的，部分国家出口信用保险机