中国百年大地震回顾 英文.ppt

Analysis of Earthquake Risk Exposure for China Milan Simic, Benfield Presentation overview background what do we need to quantify earthquake risk? hazard exposure vulnerability loss calculation conclusions - way forward Background – key facts third largest country in the world 2001 population ~1.3b GDP growth in excess of 7% a year 2001 joined WTO insurance premium statistics according to: CIRC – China Insurance Regulatory Commission Swiss Re Background – insurance premium ratio non-life to life premiums from 2:1 in early 1990s to 1:2-3 now Background – historic earthquakes historic earthquakes M6 780BC to 1994AD Background - fatalities historic earthquake fatalities (official) RGCER (Research Group on Chinese Earthquake Risk) and Munich Re Catastrophe model components Earthquake hazard in China physical background of hazard - tectonic setting 2 subduction zones under Eurasian plate and strong intra-plate deformation caused by complex stress fields Earthquake hazard in China physical background of hazard - 7 regions and faults I – Xingjiang (compression faults) II - Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (subduction – strongest earthquakes) III - Northeast China (relatively quiet) IV - North China (normal and strike/slip faults) V - South China (relatively quiet) VI - Taiwan VII - South China Sea Earthquake hazard in China geographical distribution of hazard collect historic catalogues and create synthetic ones basic catalogue information: time, source, depth, M major (M6) earthquakes between 780BC and 1994AD CSB catalogues between 1831BC and 1979? Earthquake hazard in China - shaking ground shaking (example of damage - soft storey collapse in 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake) shaking hazard measured either through intensity or instrumentally Earthquake hazard in China – shaking intensity intensity contours (1920 Haiyuan, M=8.5) Earthquake hazard in China – surface faulting ground failure (surface faulting in 1976 Tangshan, M=7.8 earthquake) failure by shear or extension identify surface fa