商业决策技术知识课件 06Quantitative Methods For Decision Makers Chapter 6 DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY.pptVIP

Quantitative Methods For Decision Makers3rd Edition Chapter 6 DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY Learning Objectives By the end of this chapter you should be able to: Calculate and explain expected value Construct and use decision trees Explain the difference between uncertainty and risk Assess the value of perfect information Pay-off table:profit contribution(￡000s) future sales level Decision low medium high Manufacture –15 10 55 Buy abroad 10 30 25 Buy domestic 5 20 40 The maximax criterion For each possible decision, identify the maximum possible pay-off. Comparing these pay-offs, select the decision that will give the maximum payoff. The maximin criterion For each possible decision, identify the minimum possible pay-off. Comparing these pay-offs, select the decision that will give the maximum payoff. Decision tree The decision tree shows the logical progression that occurs over time in terms of decisions and outcomes, and is particularly useful in sequential decision problems-where a series of decisions need to be made with each, in part, depending on earlier decisions and outcomes. Decision tree 1 BA BD M Low Medium High Low Low Medium Medium High High Decision tree 2 BA BD M Low 0.2 Medium 0.5 High 0.3 Low 0.2 Low 0.2 Medium 0.5 Medium 0.5 High 0.3 High 0.3 18.5 -15 10 55 10 30 25 5 20 40 24.5 23.0