不确定性环境下协同商务多主体仿真及实现模式分析-multi - agent simulation and implementation model analysis of collaborative commerce in uncertain environment.docxVIP

摘要Gartner Group 曾预测协同商务将成为下一轮商务发展的核心内容。企业期望 协同商务的引入能够改进业务流程，降低成本费用，提高客户满意度和忠诚度， 大幅增加收益等。近年来复杂性理论研究的一些重要思想，对协同商务这一复杂 系统的发展研究具有一定的指导意义。因此本文借鉴复杂适应性系统理论自底向 上和自顶向下相结合解决问题的基本思路，对协同商务的运作机制和实现模式进 行研究。论文首先对协同商务的概念，协同商务中的不确定性，协同商务运作机制与 模式，协同商务仿真模型的研究现状进行综述，并对本文研究的复杂适应系统理 论基础和仿真工具 Ascape 平台进行解释说明。其次在 Ascape 平台上构建多主体无协作商务仿真模型和协同商务仿真模型，观察具有相同内部行为模型的差异化企业主体在不确定性环境下的适应性经营行 为，通过对单个主体多样化的变量属性和主体行为的分析，对比两种模型中企业 主体的具体表现和运行结果，表明信息共享和资源协同在协同商务中的重要作用。然后从协同商务系统层面揭示企业主体经营活动中不确定性的产生和对企业 利益的影响，进而分析由此导致的协同商务的复杂性，在此基础上提出企业主体 应改进传统流程化的业务模式，采用业务层和协调层结合的两层模块化协同商务 构建模式。关键词：协同商务，不确定性，复杂适应系统，仿真建模，协同商务模式ABSTRACTGartner Group has forecasted the collaborative commerce will become the core content of the commerce development next round. Enterprises expect the introduction of collaborative commerce to improve business processes, reduce costs, enhance customer satisfaction and loyalty, increase benefits and so on. In recent years some important production of the Complexity Theory can be guidance to the complex collaborative commerce system. This paper studies on the operational mechanism and the implementary mode of collaborative commerce with the basic ideas from the Complex Adaptive System Theory, which emphasizes combining the bottom-up and top-down solution.Firstly, the paper summarizes the reviews on the concepts of the collaborative commerce, the uncertainty in the collaborative commerce, the operational mechanism and mode, the simulation model of the collaborative commerce. Then, the paper elaborates its theory basis Complex Adaptive System Theory and its simulation tool Ascape.Secondly, based on the Ascape platform, this paper constructs multi-agent non-collaboration commerce and collaborative commerce simulation models, observes the adaptive behaviors of the distinguishing enterprises agents that have the same internal models under the uncertain environment, analyses the enterprises agents’ different variables and actions, demonstrates the important functions of the information-sharing and resour