The “Trinity” of Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy ：“三位一体”的汇率和货币政策.pptVIP

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The “Trinity” of Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy ：“三位一体”的汇率和货币政策.ppt

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The “Trinity” of Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy ：“三位一体”的汇率和货币政策

On Trade-off and the Impossibility? The “Trilemma” of Exchange Rate Management and Autonomous Monetary Policy under CAC * The trilemma CAC ERM * Some Definitions Fiscal Deficit = Total Expenditure – Total Receipts = [Revenue Expenditure +Capital Expenditure] = [interest payments +subsidies + defence expenditure + Capital Expenditure] – Total Receipts Primary Deficit = Fiscal Deficit – interest payments = [subsidies + defence expenditure + Capital Expenditure] – Total Receipts * * CAC Capital Imports ER Appreciation Reserve Accumulation Rise in Mo Rise in M3 Rise in prices OMO Interest payments Rise in FD Cut in PD Cut in subsidies Cut in public investment Forex Inflows and Monetary Sterilization in India (Rs. Crore) Source: GOI, Economic Survey 2007-08 * Financial Year public sector banks private banks foreign banks FY2001 43.7 36.7 33.5 FY2002 43.1 40.9 34.0 FY2003 42.5 44.4 33.9 FY2004 44.0 47.4 34.8 . Priority sector lending as percentage of NBCs Source: Basic statistical returns, RBI, various issues. * Source: Basic statistical returns, RBI, various issues. Loans to SSI sector in priority sector (in %) * FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 Gross Bank credit Food procurement 8.5 10.1 7.4 4.7 Non-food 91.5 89.9 92.6 95.3 Priority 32.9 32.7 31.6 34.5 Industry-Large 34.7 32.1 35.1 32.3 Wholesale trade 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.3 Others of which 20.1 21.3 22.5 25.2 Housing 3.4 4.2 5.5 6.8 Consumer durables 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 NBFCs 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.2 Individuals against shares 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 Real estate 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.7 Personal 3.9 4.4 4.2 4.6 Advances against fixed deposits 4.3 4.0 3.4 3.4 Tourism 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 Composition of gross banking credit of SCBs (FY2001-FY2004) Source: RBI Report on Trends Pro