冰雪条件下城市主干路交通状态概率模型分析-probability model analysis of traffic state of urban main roads under ice and snow conditions.docxVIP

AbstractWiththedevelopmentofsocialeconomyandurbanmodernization,unbalancedcontradictionoftrafficsupplyanddemandhasappeared,theadverseeffectsofsnow-iceintensifiedthiscontradiction.Trafficrulesundersnow-iceconditionistheresearchfocusoftraffictheoryandpractice.Thispaperhascomprehensivelystudiedthetrafficflowcharacteristics,trafficindexmodel,trafficstatemodelanditschangelawundersnow-iceconditiononartery.Thisarticlehasfirstlyanalyzedtheresearchresultsofsnow-icetrafficandtrafficflowmodel,summarizedthetrafficflowcharacteristicsandtrafficstatechangelawundersnow-icecondition,putforwardtrafficflowstateresearchframework;secondly,consideringthecharacteristicsofsnowontheartery,thispapersurveysandevaluatesthefrictioncoefficient,thispaperestablishesthequantitativerelationbetweentrafficflowcharacteristicsandfrictioncoefficientbyregressionanalysis;thirdly,accordingtotrafficflowcharacteristicsisundertheofdoubleeffectofsnow-iceandtrafficstate,clusteranalysisappliesfortrafficflowdatatoaggregateclassificationfordifferenttrafficstate,demarcatestrafficflowspeedratio-densityratiomodelofdifferenttrafficstate;fourthly,accordingtothemappingrelationbetweentrafficflowparametersandtrafficstate,trafficflowrandomcausedtrafficstateuncertaintyandthelawoftrafficstatechangeorder,basedonthethoughtofLogisticcumulativeprobability,thispaperestablishesthetrafficstateprobabilitymodelundersnow-iceconditiononartery,andputsforwardthecorrespondingparameterscalibrationmethodandmodelevaluationmethod;finally,usingtrafficflowsurveydataundersnow-iceconditiononHuangheroadandHongqistreetinHaerbintoanalysisandforecasttrafficstate,putforwardtrafficstateprewarningindex,andcombiningtheanalysisresults,presentthecorrespondingtrafficmanagementstrategyandguidancesuggestion.Thispaperstudiedtrafficstatechangelawonthearteryundersnow-icecondition,makeupforthedeficiencyofresearchonsnow-icetraffic,improvetrafficflowtheories,hasimportanttheorysignificanceandthepracticevaluefortheurbantrafficmanagementdepartmenttoimprovethetrafficmana