论文-电力市场环境下电力系统短期负荷预测研究.docVIP

电力市场环境下电力系统短期负荷预测研究?摘要电力系统负荷预测是电力系统安全高效运行的重要一环。精确的预测既可以为制定合适的电价提供支持，又可以合理安排发电机组的发电计划、检修计划，使资源得到高效利用，增加效益，维护社会的发稳定与展。同时，荷预测有利于发电企业、供电企业以及调度机构三者之间的协调合作，增强解决实际问题的能力。因此，新时期的电力市场环境对负荷预测提出了更高的要求。短期负荷预测是指对未来几小时到未来几天的负荷进行的负荷预测。文章首先概述了该课题研究的目的与意义和该课题的研究现状与发展过程。此外，本文介绍了几种常用的短期负荷预测方法，并结合算例，考虑温度因素，使用神经网络方法进行负荷仿真预测，将预测值与实际值进行比较，对预测结果进行分析总结，得到的结果基本能反应预测趋势，体现了神经网络方法的较强的非线性映射能力，但同时也看到了单一预测模型的局限性。最后,本文分析了设计过程中的问题并根据自己的体会对这一领域作出了展望。 关键词：电力系统、短期负荷、神经网络 Short-term load forecasting research under electric market environmentAbstract Power system load forecasting is one of the most important aspects of the power system that work safely and efficiently. Accurate load forecasting can be to provide support for the appropriate price, and can draw a power and recondition plan of the HYPERLINK app:ds:generatorgenerator HYPERLINK app:ds:unitunits ,to make full use of the resources and increase the income, what’s more,it can maintain the social stability and exhibition. At the same time, the load forecasting can strengthen cooperation of the power generating companies, power supplying company and dispatching institution , to strengthen the ability of solving practical problems. Therefore, the electricity market environment in the new period puts higher requirements on load forecasting. Short-term load forecasting points that it forecast between a few hours to a few days in the future. This paper summarizes the purpose and meaning of the subject and the present status and the developing process of the subject.What’s more, this paper several kinds of commonly used short-term load forecasting method is introduced in this paper, and it combine with examples and consider the factor of temperature to simulate and forecast with neural network. We can compare with the predicted value and actual value to analyze and summarize the results. The result we got can reflect the forecasting trend so that we know the neural network have a strong po