上海电力需求研究——基于1990年-2013年数据-research on shanghais electricity demand - based on data from 1990 to 2013.docxVIP

AbstractPowerresources,asanindispensablepartoftheenergyandtheimportantfoundationofthenationaleconomy,serveaverysignificantroleinsustainableeconomicdevelopmentandimprovingpeopleslivingstandard.Undertheinternationalbackgroundofglobalwarming,energyshortagesandworseningpollution,thedevelopmentoflow-carboneconomywithlowpowerconsumptionandloweremissionstoachievesustainabledevelopmentisbecomingacommonchoiceforeconomicdevelopmentoftheworldincludingChina.While,Powerindustryisalsooneofthemajorhigh-energyconsumptionindustriesinourcountry,whichmakesitundertakeveryessentialandspecialresponsibilityinresourcesconservationandinitiatingenvironment-friendlysociety.AlongwiththerapiddevelopmentofShanghaieconomyinrecentyears,isthedevelopmentofelectricpowerindustry,aswellasthegrowingmorequicklyenergyconsumption,whichcausesincreasinglyprominentcontradictionsofgrowthofdemandandsupply.Howtomakeareasonableplanforlimitedenergyresourcesandspeedingupeconomicconstructionhasbecomeanimportantstudytopic.Moreandmorescholarsjointheresearchoftheinternalrelationbetweenenergyconsumptionandeconomicgrowth.Areasonableanalysisontheelectricitydemandisnotonlybeneficialtotheresourcesallocationbutalsoprovideavaluablereferenceforthefutureeconomicpolicytoadapttothetrendofsustainabledevelopment.ThispaperbodystartedwiththesummarizationofpowersupplyanddemandofwholeChinaandthenconcreteanalysisofShanghaipower’sdevelopmentandthestatusquoincludingthreemajorindustriesandurbanizationaboutelectricityconsumption.Inthisbasis,thispaperqualitativelyandquantitativelyanalyzedtherelationsbetweenelectricitydemandanditsⅢinfluentialfactorssuchasGDP,degreeofurbanizationandindustrializationapplyingUnitroottest,GrangercausalitytestandJohansentest.Theresultsfromempiricalanalysisonrelateddataduring1990’sand2013’sthroughEviews7.0demonstratedthatalong-termco-integrationrelationexistedamongShanghaielectricitydemandandinfluentialfactors,andtheCorrectioncoefficientinVECM(VectorErrorCorrectionModel)is-0.37,whichshowedthatabout37%deviationwillb