生育意愿与行为“背离”的分析——一个家庭的视角-an analysis of.docxVIP

首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文 首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文 生育意愿与行为“背离”的研究——一个家庭的视角 Abstract In recent years, the census data and the 1% sample data shows that Chinas birth rate has been below replacement level for a long time, but due to the inertia of the population, Chinas total population is still growing. The two co-exist of the low birth rate and the increasing of the population makes the adjustment of Chinas family planning policy in a dilemma. The future level of fertility is the fundamental basis for policy formulation. Fertility intentions and fertility behavior is directly related to, but empirical research has found that the discrepancy between fertility intentions and fertility behavior is exist, so the fertility intention will not be directly used to predict the level of fertility. Therefore, the study of the relationship between fertility intention and behavior deviated is of great theoretical and policy implications. This paper regards the family as the basic unit, demonstrates the regression with no intercept can effectively measure the deviation of fertility intention and fertility behavior, but because of the differences in the personal fertility desire and family fertility desire, there will be a bias by using personal fertility desire instead of family desire. The paper shows that by calculating the correlation coefficient of the couple’s fertility desire can effectively correct the bias. Through an empirical research of a group of Beijing household data, results show that there is a slight departure between the fertility desire and fertility behavior, fertility behavior is lower than the fertility desire. Finally, combining theoretical and empirical results of this paper, I put forward policy recommendations and research prospects. Key words: Family Fertility Intention Fertility Behavior Reliability Ratio II 目录 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark0 附录39 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark1 附录 A 式 3. 2 的推导 39 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark2 附录 B 式 3.14 的推导 39 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark3 附录 C 式 3.15 的推导 40