区域碳锁定判定研究.docVIP

区域碳锁定判定研究 　　作者简介：林秀群(1969-)，女，副教授，主要从事可持续发展和营销管理研究。 　　 　　摘要：通过建立包括陆地、湿地和海洋的碳承载力、碳超载率的计算模型，采用供需平衡法建立了区域碳锁定时间和趋势的判定模型。以有着“植物王国”和“基因宝库”之称以及水电资源相对丰富的云南省为例，对该省的碳锁定时间、趋势进行了实证研究。实证分析结果显示，云南省自2002年后开始出现了碳锁定现象且趋势越来越严重，若不进行强有力的外界干扰，这种趋势将一直延续下去。结合即使“十一?五”低碳目标的完成也没能减轻云南省碳锁定加剧的趋势，提出把减轻碳超载、控制能源消费总量、提升碳承载力纳入低碳经济发展的目标管理。 　　 　　关键词：碳锁定时间；碳锁定趋势；碳承载力；碳超载量；碳超载率；判定模型 　　 　　中图分类号：F205文献标志码：A文章编号：1671-1254(2014)03-0073-07 　　 　　 A Study on Determination of Carbon Lock-in 　　―Taking Yunnan Province as an Example 　　 　　LIN Xiu??qun 　　 　　(School of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science Technology, 　　Kunming 650093, Yunnan, China) 　　 　　Abstract:In this paper, the criteria models on carbon lock-in time and trend are proposed based on the carbon loading capacity model and the rate of carbon overload of land, marsh swamp everglade and ocean with the balance law of supply and demand. The empirical study has been done about Yunnan Province which is known as “The Kingdom of Vegetable” and “The Treasure Trove of Genes” and for its rich hydropower resources. The carbon lock-in phenomenon has appeared in Yunnan Province ever since 2002 and is more and more serious. Without interference, this trend would continue. During the National “Eleventh Five-year Plan” period, the accomplishment of “The Low Carbon Target” Yunnan provincial government has not yet reduced the carbon lock-in trend. The paper thereby suggests that controlling the carbon overload quality trend, energy consumption and improving the carbon loading capacity should be included in the target management of low-carbon economic development. 　　 　　Keywords:carbon lock-in time; carbon lock-in trend; carbon loading capacity; carbon overload quality; rate of carbon overload; criteria model 　　 　　 　　 　　 　　 　　炭锁定对低碳经济的发展具有重要影响。从一次电在能源生产和消费中的比例看，云南省明显高于全国平均水平（见表1），且“十一五”期间顺利完成了单位GDP能耗下降40%-45%的目标。具备低碳经济发展资源优势和有着“植物王国”和“基因宝库”之称的云南省是否出现了碳锁定？若出现了，是何时出现的？碳锁定趋势如何？这些问题对云南省的生态文明建设有举足轻重的意义。本文涉及的碳锁定、固碳能力、固碳量、碳承载力、碳排放量、碳