基于SPI指数农作物生长期干旱时间变化研究.docVIP

基于SPI指数农作物生长期干旱时间变化研究 　　摘要:邢台县作为河北省重要粮食生产县之一,受旱灾影响日趋严重。根据1954-2010年逐月降水数据,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)进行趋势分析和M-K趋势突变检验,研究邢台县冬小麦和夏玉米不同生育阶段干旱发生的规律。结果表明,邢台县干旱发生强度和频率都在增大,以中旱和重旱为主,20世纪50年代后期干旱趋势显著,60年代和90年代干旱趋势相对明显。冬小麦SPI1指数下降速率在灌浆-成熟阶段最大、拔节阶段次之、再之是苗生长阶段,此3个阶段干旱加剧较其它生育阶段明显,除播种前和抽穗-开花阶段,其他各生育阶段SPI指数自1980年初均有不同程度下降,干旱趋势相对明显。夏玉米生育期的早中期阶段SPI1指数呈下降的趋势,播种-拔节阶段、拔节-抽雄阶段是干旱的频发期,除播种前和灌浆-成熟阶段,其他各生育阶段SPI1指数自1970年后期开始下降,呈现干旱趋势。 　　关键词:邢台县;冬小麦;夏玉米;生育阶段;干旱 　　中图分类号:S423文献标识码:A文章编号:0439-8114(2014)11-2536-06 　　 　　The Time Changing of Drought in Crop Growth Period Based on the SPI Index 　　――Taking Xingtai County in Hebei Province as an Example 　　 　　SHEN Hai-feng1,SHANG Yan-rui1,2, LIU Gong-ying1 　　(1.School of Resources and Environmental Science,Hebei Normal University,Shijiazhuang 050024,China; 　　2.Hebei Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction, Shijiazhuang 050016, China) 　　 　　Abstract: Xingtai county, as one of the major grain production counties in Hebei province, is seriously affected by drought. Based on the monthly precipitation data of 1954-2010 years, standardized precipitation index (SPI) for trend fitting and Mann-Kendall trend mutation testing was used to study the inter-annual variation of meteorological drought of the winter wheat and summer maize growing in Xingtai county. More attention was payed to analyze the regularity of drought in its different growth stages. The results showed that intensity and frequency of droughts was increasing in Xingtai county. Moderate drought and severe drought was the main trend. The trend of drought was significant in the late 1950s, relatively more obvious in late 1960s and 1990s. Winter wheat SPI1 index was decreased fast in filling to maturing stage of winter wheat, then came to the jointing stage. The last was the further growth of the seedling stage. The three stages was meteorological drought intensified significantly over other growth stages before sowing and heading-flowering stage. The SPI1 Index of other gr