TPP对中国与东盟经贸关系的潜在影响研究-国际贸易学专业论文.docxVIP

II II 级版”，积极构建“21 世纪海上丝绸之路”，同时还要不断加快国内产业结 构调整步伐，转变经济发展方式，以自身的强大实力做后盾，主动探索加 入 TPP。另外，要加强与周边国家和其他国家的双边以及多变 FTA 建设， 稳步推进区域经济合作。 关键词：TPP 中国与东盟 潜在影响 对策 III III THE STUDY OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF TPP ON ECONOMIC AND TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND ASEAN ABSTRACT This article is on the basis of regional economic integration theory，and the main line focuses on the potential impact between TPP and the economic and trade relations of China and ASEAN. It points out that TPP appears on the condition of the deepening of the economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region. On the other hand，the stagnation of trade liberalization of APEC becomes the impetus of TPP‘s development in America. At the same time，this article analyzes the new changes of trade and investment between China and ASEAN. These changes appear before the foundation of TPP，and they are the results of the establishment of China-ASEAN free trade area. China and ASEAN are becoming more and more closely on the economic and trade relations. The concentrated expressions include the trade scale‘s dramatic increase and balance deepening of trade dependence，and the increase of product structure and two-way investment，etc. Meanwhile, the cooperation also exist some problems, such as similar trade structure and the smaller scale of investment. In addition， some external factors, like the U.S. intervention, political trust between China and ASEAN countries, are also difficult to successfully carrying out insufficient IV IV economic and trade relations.But the appearance of TPP is accompanied by the potential threats. Singapore， Malaysia， Brunei and Vietnam have attended the negotiation，otherwise，The Philippines and Thailand also received the invitation. But China still be excluded. So，once the negotiation comes to an agreement，it will bring large impact to the structure of trade and investment between China and ASEAN. On the one hand，the changes include the trade diversion effect and invest