中国通货膨胀成因分析——基于2003-2011年环比季度数据的实证分析-analysis of the causes of inflation in china an empirical analysis based on quarterly data from 2003 to 2011.docxVIP

华 华 中 科 技 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 II II ABSTRACT The major cause of inflation is not the same every time and it depends on the specific situation. To cope with inflation effectively, we must at first find out the main reason for inflation in the period which we are interested in. Lots of literature has examined the recent inflation in China and stated their own opinions on the major causes, and the results are discrepant. Based on the theoretical model of Philips curve and other economic theory, this article starts by analyzing the possible causes of inflation, and then examines the mechanism that how output gap, money supply, consumption, investment, government expenditure and supply shocks would impact the inflation rate. The majors causes are divided into two groups: demand factors and supply factors. In the empirical analyses part of this paper, economic data from 2003 to 2011 is being used to calculate the quarter-on-quarter index of the possible determinants of inflation. The results of multiple linear regression model, VAR model and Granger causality test indicate that: in the period of this article examines, inflation is mainly caused by supply shocks, and the rise in the price of agricultural products contributes the most to inflation; the increase of money supply is more likely to be the consequence of the reaction to the supply shocks by the central bank; the expansion of aggregate demand may not be the main reason of recent inflation , while it is necessary for the supply shocks to create an inflation; the inflation in the sample period shows evident feature of inertia, which indicates that the assumption of adaptive expectation coincide with the facts. Key Words: Inflation; Philips Curve; Supply Shocks; Output Gap; VAR Model PAGE IV PAGE IV 目 录 摘 要 I Abstract II 1. 绪论 1 1.1. 研究背景与目的 1 1.2. 通货膨胀成因的相关文献综述 3 1.3. 研究方法与论文结构 5 2. 理论分析 7 2.1. 通货膨胀的理论分析及 Philips 曲线 7 2.2. 通货膨胀的诱因分析 10 3. 指标选取和数据处理 15 3.1. 通货膨胀指标的选取 15 3.2. 产出缺口的估计 16 3.3. 成本