中国经济增长与交通事故长期关系分析及其政策优化-analysis of the long - term relationship between economic growth and traffic accidents in china and policy optimization.docxVIP

I II Abstract For the development law of traffic accidents, some foreign scholars described it as “Smeed’s Law”. Generally speaking, “Smeed’s Law” refers to the number of traffic fatalities increase with the number of cars on the road at the beginning of economic development, but with the economic development and the number of cars continues to increase to a certain extent, traffic deaths and death rates began to decline. Namely there is an inverted U shaped curve between economic growth and traffic accident. This thesis uses the national time series data from 1990 to 2008 and the provincial panel data from 1996 to 2008 to test “Smeed’s Law”. To test whether is a long-term relationship between Chinas economic growth and the mortality from traffic accident. From empirical analysis:” Smeed’s Law” is established in China. Moreover, the traffic deaths are still on the rise stage in China. On this basis, this article also analyzed the main influence factors of traffic accident. To promote a decline in traffic deaths in China, there is a need for governments regulate, that is we need to introduce policy interventions. This article analyzes dynamic trajectory of traffic accidents under policy intervention by using optimal control theory, accordingly, proved the existence of saddle-point stable in dynamic system, the optimal policy of stale point depends on the number of cars, population size and the traffic deaths that we can accept. Thus government should consider the impact of these factors as making optimal intervention policy. In addition, according to different traffic fatalities at the end of period, we analyze the optimal policy as there is a term of office. Keywords: Economic Growth Traffic Accident Smeed’s Law Optimal policy PAGE PAGE IV 目 录 摘 要I AbstractII 1 绪论 1.1 研究的目的及意义 (1) 1.2 文献综述 (2) 1.3 研究思路及创新点 (7) 2 经济增长、汽车数量及交通事故的现状 2.1 我国经济增长的表现及变化(10) 2.2 我国交通事故死亡人数的变化趋势及特点 (13) 3 经济增长与交通事故死亡人数之间关系的经验研究 3.1 我国交通事故死亡者的构成及主要影响因素 (16) 3.2 变量的选择 (18) 3.