综合客运枢纽投资效果评价分析-evaluation and analysis of investment effect of comprehensive passenger transport hub.docxVIP

i i PAGE PAGE iv 摘 要 为了实现“零距离”换乘，更好的为人服务，我国加快了综合客运枢纽的构建步伐， 交通运输部也给予了大量的资金和政策支持。目前全国各地都在积极的规划建设综合客 运枢纽，但由于其具有初始投资额大、资本产出率低、投资风险大的特点，加之现在缺 乏一套科学有效的投资效果评价体系，在投资费用方面分析不充分，从而出现了资源浪 费、投资效果差等问题。当前国家正处于经济结构调整期，财政紧张，对综合客运枢纽 的资金支持有限，因此构建一套科学有效的综合客运枢纽投资效果评价体系迫在眉睫。 论文在分析研究国内外经济评价理论发展现状的基础上，采用文献综述法、定性与 定量相结合的方法，分别从交通效果、经济效果、社会效果和环境效果四个方面，分析 研究了综合客运枢纽投资效果评价的基础理论；建立了投资效果评价指标体系，并对各 指标属性值进行了定量分析，提出了综合客运枢纽项目投资效果评价的基础理论和评价 方法；最后采用层次分析法、批评法、灰色关联分析法和模糊综合评价法集合而成的 ACGF 综合评价法，结合建立的指标体系，对实例进行评价。 论文的研究成果有利于为公众提供安全、便捷和舒适的运输服务；有利于节省建设 投资，提高投资效果；有利于丰富综合客运枢纽的基础理论，对我国综合客运枢纽项目 规划、建设和投资效果评价具有指导意义和实际应用价值。 关键词：综合客运枢纽，投资效果，评价指标体系，ACGF 模型 Abstract In order to achieve zero distance transfer of human services, China has accelerated the construction pace of the comprehensive passenger transportation hub and the Ministry of Transport has also given a lot of financial and policy support. Now the countries are actively building the comprehensive passenger transportation hub, but because of its large investment, low capital output and the large risk, coupled with the lack of a scientific methods and the inadequate analyses of investment costs and appear a waste of resource and poor investment results. Because Countries are in a period of adjustment of economic structure and financial constraints, comprehensive passenger transportation hub funding support is limited, so building a scientific and effective evaluation method of the investment effect of comprehensive passenger transportation hub is imminent. On the basis of the analysis of the current development of domestic and international economic evaluation theory, this article uses literature review method and combines qualitative and quantitative method and from the traffic effects, economic effects, social effects and environmental effects, researches the basic evaluation theory of the comprehensive transportation investment effects. This article builds an investment effect evaluation index system and quantitatively analyses the attribute values of eac