比较历史分析的因果解释模式研究-政治学理论专业论文.docxVIP

万方数据 万方数据 上海师范大学硕士学位论文 摘要 论文题目：比较历史分析的因果解释模式研究 学科专业：政治学理论 学位申请人：薛 陈 指导教师：王礼鑫 摘要 比较历史分析被其使用者评价是较为适合研究“案例太少、变量太多”一类 问题的研究方法。革命、政体以及福利国家等宏观现象是它的研究主题，对这些 宏观现象的产生进行因果分析是它的研究目的。比较历史分析同时是一种小样本 案例分析。本文尝试从纵向的角度将比较历史分析划分为建立因果关系和探求因 果机制两个步骤，并分别加以分析，以提炼和建立比较历史分析的因果解释模式。 比较历史分析的研究主题以及研究目的来源于历史社会学，而历史制度主义 则对比较历史分析理解因果过程提供了重要启示。比较历史分析在进行因果解释 时，主要有两个步骤，首先是通过跨案例比较，运用求同法和求异法找出解释变 量，进而初步建立与待解释现象之间的因果关系。其次是在案例内，运用过程分 析法探求原因产生结果的因果机制。比较历史分析在案例分析上的历史转向，使 其处于一个时序分析的框架内，而时序分析中的关键节点和路径依赖的分析概念， 使得过程分析不仅仅是对历史事件的简单叙述，而更具有范式上的意义。 关键词：比较历史分析；小样本案例分析；求同法和求异法；因果机制；路径依 赖 I Abs Abstract Shanghai Normal University Master Abstract Comparative-historical analysis is seen as an appropriate method that can be used to study themes which are “too many variables and too small cases” by researchers. Macro-phenomena are its themes ,such as revolutions,political regimes,and welfare states, and so on, and, causal analysis is its aim. Meanwhile, comparative-historical analysis is Small-N analysis. This paper attempts to divide it to two parts that founding causality and analysing causal mechanism from the longitudinal perspective ,and analyses them one by one so as to construct the causal analytical pattern of it. The themes and aims of comparative-historical analysis stem from historical sociology, and, historical institutionalism provide important inspiration for it to understand causal process. There are two major steps to proceed causal analysis, firstly,it is cross-case analysis to find explanatory variables by using methods of difference and agreement ,then found causal relation with explanandum. Secondly , it explores causal mechanism which contribute to outcomes within cases. Comparative-historical analysis turn to history in the perspective cases, which makes it be in the sketch of temporal analysis,and, the conceptions such as critical juncture and path-dependence make process analysis not only analyze historical events but have paradigmatic meaning. Key words: comparative-historical analysis; Small-N