融资约束如何影响了中国企业的出口持续时间.docxVIP

PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT26 融资约束如何影响了中国企业的出口持续时间？ 摘要：金融市场改革进程的相对滞后，使得融资难题成为中国多数企业的共性特征，并深刻影响其出口的稳定性和持续增长。本文基于1998-2007年中国工业企业数据，通过Cox模型和Weibull模型等生存分析技术，从微观视角描述了中国企业出口持续时间的分布特征，并利用多种稳健性方法检验了融资约束对不同企业出口持续时间的影响。研究发现：中国企业出口持续时间的风险函数具有显著地负时间依赖性特征，且融资约束的加剧缩短了企业的出口持续时间。其中，对国有企业出口持续时间的抑制作用最为明显，对外资企业的影响次之，对非国有内资企业的影响最小。进一步的研究也表明，融资约束的加剧对金融市场化水平较高地区的企业和大、中规模企业出口持续时间的负向影响小于金融市场化水平较低的地区和小规模企业，利用两种融资约束指标、首个和唯一持续时间段的估计均得到一致结论。 关键词：融资约束；出口持续时间；生存分析；Cox比例风险模型；Weibull风险模型 How Financial Constraints Affect the Chinese Export Duration? Abstract：Financial market reform process has lagged behind, making the problem of financing become common features of most Chinese enterprises, and profoundly affect the stability and sustainable growth of firms’exports.Based on 1998--2007 Chinas industrial enterprises data and survival analysis techniques of Cox model and Weibull model, we describes the distribution of Chinese enterprises exporting durationfrom the microscopic perspective,and utilize a variety of robustness methods to empirically test the impact of financing constraints on exports’ duration of different enterprise.It shows that risk function of Chinese export duration have significant negative time-dependent features, and the intensification of financing constraints is not beneficial for extending the duration of export business.Specifically, its inhibition impact on State-owned enterprises’ exported duration is the most, and followed by foreign-funded enterprises and non-state-funded enterprises.It also shows that the negative impact on enterprises located in areas which has the higher level of financial market and on large and medium scale firms is less than that on enterprises in the areas of lower level of financial market and small scale enterprises. Besides, utilizing two indicators of financial constraints, the first duration period sample and the only sustained period has the consistent results. Key word:financialconstraints; export duration; survival analysis;Cox proportion ris