山东省农业用水量和农业经济发展关系研究.docVIP

山东省农业用水量和农业经济发展关系研究 　　摘 要：近年来，山东省农业用水与其他用水量相比占比最高，如此庞大的用水量对农业发展的贡献有多大，而农业经济发展反过来又怎样对农业用水产生影响，是值得研究并解决的问题。该文利用VAR模型对农业经济发展与农业用水量的关系进行分析，研究结果表明：山东省农业用水量与农业经济发展存在协整关系；农业用水量与农业经济发展之间存在负相关性；农业经济发展对水资源利用的贡献度大于水资源利用对农业经济发展的贡献度。山东省作为农业大省必须要寻找农业发展的增长点。 　　关键词：农业用水量；农业经济发展；VAR模型 　　中图分类号 F323.213 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-7731（2017）13-0022-04 　　Study on the Relationship between Agricultural Water Consumption and Agricultural Economic Development in Shandong Province 　　Tang Lingling 　　（Research Center of Economic Development in Less Developed Areas in Guizhou University of Finance and Economics，Guiyang 550025，China） 　　Abstract：In recent years，agricultural water consumption in Shandong Province has been higher than that of other water resources. The mutual influence between a large consumption of water and agricultural development and the contribution to each other are the main problems that the paper intends to solve. The relationship between agricultural water consumption and agricultural economic development is analyzed by using VAR model. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between agricultural water consumption and agricultural economic development in Shandong Province. There is a negative correlation between agricultural water consumption and agricultural economic development. The contribution of agricultural economic development to water use is greater than the contribution of water resources utilization to agricultural economic development. Shandong province as a big agricultural province must find the growth point of agricultural development. 　　Key words：Agricultural water consumption；Agricultural economic development；VAR model 　　1 山东省农业水资源利用现状 　　2012年，经过3年的调查分析，第一次全国水利普查山东省区域内工作基本完成，普查的结果并不令人满意。全省年用水量达232亿m3，居民用水、农业、工业、建筑业、第三产业和生态环境用水比例分别为9.13%、68.58%、14.75%、0.45%、3.66%、3.25%，农业用水是工业用水的4倍多，是其他用水的2倍多，创造了3960亿元的农业总产值。2015年全省总用水量为212.77亿m3，其中，农田灌溉用水占58.0%、林牧渔畜用水占9.3%、工业用水占13.9%、城镇公共用水占3.5%、居民生活用水占12.1%、生态环境用水占3.2%，农业用水的比例降低10.58%，但仍然是工业用水的4倍多，创造了