能源消费和经济增长因果关系研究.docVIP

能源消费和经济增长因果关系研究 　　摘 要:运用面板单位根检验、异质面板协整检验和面板因果检验方法,检验中国30个省市区1986―2006年能源消费与经济增长的因果关系,结论表明:(1)从长期来看,东部沿海和西部地区存在能源消费与经济增长的双向因果关系,中部和东北地区存在从能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系;(2)从短期来看,东部沿海和西部地区存在能源消费与经济增长的双向因果关系,中部地区存在从经济增长到能源消费的单向因果关系,东北地区存在从能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系。该结论为制定合理的能源消费长期战略与短期政策提供了科学依据。 　　关键词:能源消费;经济增长;面板因果检验;东部地区;中部地区;西部地区;东北地区 　　中图分类号:F224.0;F061.2;F127文献标志码:A文章编号:1008-6439(2009)06-0045-08 　　 　　Research on the Granger Causality between ??Energy Consumption and Economic Growth?? 　　―Empirical Analysis Based on the Provincial Panel Data of China 　　XU Guang-yue 　　(School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Hubei Wuhan 430074, China)?? 　　Abstract: This paper applies the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel co-integration and panel causality test to survey the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The empirical results show that there is long-term bi-directional causality between energy consumption and economic growth in east and west of China, while there is just long-term unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth in central and north-east area. Moreover, there is short-term bi-directional causality between energy consumption and economic growth in east and west area, while there is just short-term unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth in north-east area, but the central area is on the contrary. These results provide a scientific basis for long-term strategy and short-term policy of energy consumption.?? 　　Key words: energy consumption; economic growth; panel causality test; east area; middle area; west area; northeast area?? 　　 　　引 言 　　 　　中国现在不仅是一个发展中大国,而且是能源生产和能源消费第二大国,因此能源问题是中国经济社会发展、现代化建设和和平崛起的焦点、热点和难点问题。自从2003年中国成为仅次于美国的第二大能源消费国后,近几年中国煤、电、油供应全面紧张,能源对外依存度,特别是石油对外依存度不断提升,已由1993年的7%提高到2005年的44%,能源消费弹性系数已连续几年超过1。 　　面对国际市场能源供求关系的紧张局势,中国能源问题变得日益严重,于是提出了“节能减排”的战略。“节能”在减少能源消费的同时,是否会阻碍经济增长,这是一个值得关注和研究的课题。这个问题和能源消费与经济增长的因果关系有很大关联。如果存在从能源消费到经济增长的因果关系,则