1贝叶斯网络-电子技术应用.docVIP

智能电能表可靠性的研究 张 垠1 王海滨2 (1.国网上海市电力公司电力科学研究院，上海，200437；2.哈尔滨电工仪表研究所，黑龙江哈尔滨，150028) 摘要：可靠性作为智能电能表正常工作的重要指标，是现阶段电能质量研究的重点问题，本文针对智能电能表可靠性预计的重要性为切入点，讨论电能表可靠性的研究过程，以贝叶斯网络为依据，分析了传统的贝叶斯网络的可靠性预计双向推理的方法，并且同时结合故障树的模型理论，在可靠性研究的求解过程中引入了新的桶消元法对贝叶斯网络进行计算简化，从而快速得到可靠性预计结果。最后通过本文提出的方法，应用于电能表可靠性预计实例当中，计算的结果满足GJB/Z299C-2006标准在误差范围内的要求，从而证明，该方法简化预计过程的同时准确的预计出可靠性结果。 关键词：可靠性预计；失效率；贝叶斯网络；桶消元法 Research on the Reliability of Smart Energy Meter Zhang Yin1 Wang Haibin2 （1.Electric Power Research Institute, SMEPC, Shanghai, 200437, China;2.Harbin Research Institute of Electrical Instruments, Heilongjiang Harbin, 150028, China） Abstract: Reliability as an important indicator of the normal work of smart energy meter is the focus of power quality research at this stage of the problem, this paper aims at the importance of intelligent energy meter reliability as the starting point to discuss the reliability of the energy meter research process to Bayesian The traditional method of Bayesian networks reliability prediction bi-direction reasoning is analyzed and a new bucket elimination method is introduced to solve the Bayesian network in the process of solving the reliability problem. At the same time, based on the model theory of the fault tree, Network to simplify the calculation, and thus quickly get the reliability of the expected results. Finally, the method proposed in this paper is applied to the case of reliability prediction of electric energy meters. The results of the calculation meet the requirement of GJB / Z299C-2006 standard in the error range, which proves that the method can simplify the prediction process and accurately predict the reliability at the same time. result. Key words: reliability prediction; failure rate; Bayesian networks; bucket elimination method 0引言 依据国家电网建设指南规划，预计到“十三五”时期，我国的电网建设实现全面“信息化、数字化、自动化”的智能电网工程，在该项工程中完成电能质量目标，达到电能计量的“全覆盖、全采集”的新目标，建成用户的用电信息采集及全费控的采集系统，对于该系统中最重要且最基础的环节就是智能电能表[1][2]。 可靠性作为一个评判电能表的产品质量的重要指标，需要能够进行准确的预计，来保证电能表的正常工作。电能表系统可靠性的预计方法有很多，其中包括随