城市交通拥挤状况的仿真和评估-软件工程专业论文.docxVIP

Classified Index: TP311.5 U.D.C: 681.3 Dissertation for the Masters Degree in Engineering SIMULATION AND EVALUATION FOR URBAN TRAFFIC CONGESTION Candidate: Supervisor: Associate Supervisor: Academic Degree Applied for: Speciality: Affiliation： Date of Defence: Degree-Conferring-Institution: Chen Yugang Senior Lecturer Liu Shu Professor Yves DUCQ Professor Luminita ION Doctor Tatiana CUCU Master of Engineering Software Engineering School of Software September, 2010 Harbin Institute of Technology 摘 要 本文致力于城市交通服务领域针对一个评估工具的研究和实现。其研究 方法是要拟定一个新服务方案：在城外建立一个停车场。首先确定有关用户 观点的交通标准，并对停车场周围的用户做调查分析，基于这些调查数据， 计算新服务的使用率，并对潜在用户群体进行分类；然后针对一些交通指标， 对新服务的定量模拟数据和初始状态做偏差评估，从而评估新服务的交通影 响，如交通挤塞，环境因素，金融方面，福利损失和意外事故。最后，为决 策者拟定一个最优的解决方案。 本文主要采用模拟工具 F_VIS_SIM 来实现对交通服务数据的分析和模 拟，并使用了大量的算法，方法和公式，对该模拟工具进行了修改和扩展。 其中，田口算法是通过给定的调查数据，用来获取所有可能的情况，并依据 预定义的交通标准，分析并找到最健壮的解决方案；直接聚类算法主要用来 针对用户的观点进行分类；模糊逻辑算法和 Pignistic 变换用来计算停车场的 使用率。 COPERT III 方法用来计算二氧化碳排放量和燃料消耗量，最后结 合其他大量的具有权威性的国家或地方的统计数据，实现针对新交通服务指 标的评估。该研究方法对城市交通流动性的改善有重大的指导意义。 关键词 使用率；交通评价；田口算法；Pignistic 变换；直接聚类算法 - 1 - Abstract This paper is dedicated to the implementation of an evaluation tool in the field of the urban transport service. The research method is to draw up a new traffic service project: building a park and ride out of town. Firstly, identify the traffic criteria regarding the users’ perspectives, and make an investigation around park and ride for the users, based on these survey data, to calculate the use rate of the new service, and classify the potential users. Secondly, evaluate the traffic impacts of the new service, by the deviations evaluation between the traffic indicators of a new project based on the quantitative simulation data and the data of initial state, such as traffic congestion, environmental factors, financial aspects, welfare losses and accidents. Finally, find an optimal solution for the decision maker. This work adopts simulator F_VIS_SIM (coded by JAVA language ) to implement the analysis and simulation of the