房地产投资决策双障碍期权模型研究与实证分析-技术经济及管理专业论文.docxVIP

房地产投资决策双障碍期权模型研究与实证分析 房地产投资决策双障碍期权模型研究与实证分析 摘 要 近年来，在我国宏观调控政策的引导下，房地产行业逐步呈现稳定发展趋势。作为一 种综合性极强的行业，它对国民经济的发展和城市化建设起着主导作用。房地产行业关系 国计民生，具有很大的联动性、高风险性、供应链长、区域性和不可移动性等特点，这就 造成了房地产行业投资的不确定性和风险性。因此合理的投资决策显得尤为重要。房地产 行业复杂多变，传统的房地产投资决策方法本身的局限性已经不能满足，在实际应用中存 在较大的缺陷，在很大程度上影响了投资决策的有效性和科学性。基于此，本着谨慎投资 决策的思想，本文将实物期权方法引入到房地产投资决策中。传统的房地产投资决策方法 忽视了房地产投资中不确定性和动态灵活性所带来的价值。我们对房地产开发项目投资决 策过程进行改进，只有当销售化阶段净值必须达到一定标准，投资者才决定投资。本论文 运用了双障碍期权的思想，通过建立双障碍期权定价模型，引入一个缓冲区域，使投资者 不必在“立刻投资”和“不投资之间”做出选择，从而不丧失投资机会。这种方法既顾及 了 NPV 法本身的缺陷，又顾及了投资机会，特别对谨慎投资决策提供了很好的理论依据和 评价方法。 关键词：房地产投资 净现值 双障碍期权 敏感性分析 IV 河北工业大学硕士学位论文 THE DOUBLE-BARRIER OPTION MODEL RESEARCH AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING ABSTRACT In recent years,the real estate industry trends show steady progressive ,in our country macroeconomic regulation and control policy guidance.As a highly integrated industry,it plans a leading role to the development of national econonmy and urbanization construction.Real estate industry,people’s livelihood,with great interaction,high risk,supply chain length,regional and non-mobile features,which resulted in the real estate industry investment uncertainy and risk.therefore,a reasonable investment decisions is particularly important.The limitations of the traditional real estate investment decision can no longer meet the complex real estate industy,in practice there is a big flaw in the investment decisions significantly affect the effective and scientific.Based on this,prudent investment decisions in line with the idea, this article will introduce real option approach to real estate investment decision-making.The traditional real estate investment decision-making approach ignores the uncertainty and dynamic flexibility brought about by the value.Only when the sales phase must reach a certain standard value,the investor decided to invest.So as not to lose investment opportunities,this paper uses the idea of double barrier options,double barrier option by building models,the introducti