房地产价格宏观影响因素的定量分析研究工商管理专业论文.docxVIP

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE MACRO-ECONOMY INFLUENCE FACTORS OF REALTY PRICE ABSTRACT The macro-economy factors that influence the price of house are complex and diversiform, and different factors have different manner and extent to take action. So, to study their manner and extent is valuable and applicable. The authorities can use the result to constitute rational laws and regulations to lead the house market developing healthy. Enterprises can use the result to adjust their strategies to avoid investing blind and resource waste according to the change of the manner and the extent of the macro-economy factors as well as the change of the macro-economy policies. The house price system is a typical economy complex system, and it is difficult to get a relative accurate result using the traditional econometrics methods. Firstly, the sample number is limited when we study the house price of a specifically times, short sometimes. Then it is un-accomplishable with the traditional methods if there is a little data with many variables. For example it is unthinkable to model with 50 samples and 20 variables. What is more important, when using the traditional methods, it may take great error to the model structure and prediction if some variable can not be included in the model but we have no pre-information to exclude them. When modeling with limited samples, people used to analysis the problems from one angle, of which the result is unilateral commonly and is not the reflection the function and the involvement of the house economy system. The Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) is a good way to solve the above problems. Firstly, GMDH has less demand to the sample numbers and it has good ability to resist noise. Secondly, GMDH can choose variables to the optimal models. Based on GMDH modeling idea, this paper analysis the causality between the macro-economy factors and house price and the interaction among them, also, some phenomenon taken place in our house market has be