房地产价格变动对我国居民消费的影响研究-金融学专业论文.docxVIP

房地产价格变动对我国居民消费的影响研究 内容摘要 近年来，房地产价格变动与居民消费之间的关系越来越受到学者和政 府部门的关注，这种关注正是由于过去 20 多年来房地产市场对整个宏观经 济的巨大影响。目前我国正处于经济转型的关键时期，经济增长速度年年 攀高，然而居民消费并没有跟上经济增长的步伐。我国居民消费需求乏力 问题已经严重制约着我国经济的持续健康发展，成为我国经济发展中日益 突出的问题。 房地产价格上升对居民消费的影响主要可以分为两个方面：财富效应 和挤出效应。而我国房地产市场对消费的作用究竟是财富效应还是挤出效 应一直受到各方的关注，因此本文着重研究房地产价格对我国居民消费的 影响。本文利用 2000-2010 年的年度面板数据建立固定效应模型估计房地产 价格变动对居民消费的影响，通过对 24 个大中城市的数据进行实证研究， 结果表明：首先，我国房地产市场存在财富效应，而这种财富效应并不十 分显著，可以说是微弱的财富效应，同时，不同城市房地产价格变化对居 民消费的影响是不同的，而造成这一差异可能受多种因素影响，各个城市 的经济发展水平、地理位置、居民购买力以及居民消费心理的不同，都会 影响居民的消费行为。其次，收入仍是影响居民消费的首要因素。最后在 此基础上提出了相关的政策建议。 关键词：房地产价格，消费，财富效应，面板数据模型 RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF HOUSE PRICE CHANGES ON HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION IN CHINA ABSTRACT Recently, due to the great impact of fluctuating prices of real estate on economy in the past 20 years, attention has been focused on the relationship between the fluctuation in prices of real estate and consumption by scholars and government departments.Currently our country is in the critical period of the economic transition, the rate of economic growth is climbing up year by year, but the consumption of residence has not kept up with the pace of economic growth. Weak consumer demand slows down the development of Chinese economy to a large extent and becomes a significant problem in our economy. Real estate price on the consumption of the residents influence mainly can be divided into two aspects: wealth effect and crowding-out effect. All parties focuses is on what is the direction of the influence from real estate market to consumption. Therefore this article studies how the changes of house prices affect residential consumption. This paper, by using 2000-2010 annual panel data to establish fixed effects regression model to estimate the impact of house price changes on household consumption, through the 24 cities data for empirical research and the results show that: first, the real estate market has wealth effect in China, but this kind of wealth effect is not very significant, it can be said weak wealth e