房地产价格与城市经济发展关系研究-区域经济学专业论文.docxVIP

中文摘要 近年来房地产业蓬勃发展，作为高关联度产业，其已成为国民经济的重要支 柱产业，然而带动经济增长的同时，房价超出多数人预期的快速上涨也给社会发 展造成较深的隐患，从而引起了各界人士的广泛关注和讨论，国务院及各部委也 连续出台了一系列严厉的调控政策以确保房地产业持续稳定发展，但是政策实施 的效果往往达不到预期，究其原因在于房价与城市经济发展之间有着千丝万缕的 联系，所以弄清房价与城市经济发展之间的关系成为解决“房价”问题的首要任 务。 本文首先论述房地产价格与城市经济发展方面的相关理论，为下文研究做出 铺垫；其次，分析房价与城市经济发展之间的互动机制，得出房价是通过何种途 径影响城市经济的，相反城市经济发展又是怎样影响房地产市场的；最后，以全 国 18 个大中城市商品住宅销售价格以及主要经济指标为样本，采用格兰杰因果 检验、主成分分析、回归分析等方法，对城市经济发展水平和房价之间的关系进 行实证分析。实证分析的结果显示，人均 GDP、人均储蓄余额、人均财政收入 （支出）、第三产业比重等因素对房价的变动有着很大的影响。 对于房价与城市经济发展之间的关系，本文虽在定量、实证方面做出了创新， 但是只是初步的尝试。由于有些数据的不可得性、历年数据统计口径变化等问题 的存在，本文只选取了 6 个指标来反映城市经济发展水平，所以这是今后研究需 要努力解决的一个难题，另外因为笔者理论水平有限，此类问题的研究方法、研 究内容还有待深化和补充。 关键词：房地产价格，城市，经济发展，关系 Abstract With the rapid development of real estate market, real estate has become an important pillar industry of national economy. However, the rise of housing price which is beyond most people’s anticipation took much trouble to social development as it makes our economy grow more quickly. These problems have attract much attention of people, the State Council and its departments also introduced a series of serious policies continuously to affect the rising speed of housing price, but its effect is not very good, the most important reason is that housing price has a close relationship with city economy development, so realizing the relationship must come first to solve housing price problem. Firstly, the article discusses the relevant theory about housing price and city economy development, this can make a good foundation for following study; Secondly, we analyze how housing price and city economy development affect each other; Finally, taking 18 big and medium cities’ housing price and main economy indexes as sample, we make empirical analysis to their relationship by adopting Granger Causality Test and Analysis of Regression. The result is that these factors including per capita gross domestic product, per capita government expenditure, have a great impact on housing price. Although the article makes some innovation in empirica