房地产开发投资的模糊实物期权决策模型构建和应用研究-管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

ABSTRACT There are many uncertainties in 由e process of real es阳te development. How to mak:e the decision under uncertainty is the matt町由at developers c町e about. Real option is the right but not the obligation held by an investor to tak:e actions when mak:ing decisions under uncertainty. It can supplement and rectí命也e ignorance of the h value of flexibility by traditional investment decision-mak:ing method. Overseas，real option research has already achieved considerable success，especial1y in the area of 吗 real est创.e development; scholars have established many real option models on real estate development. In China，research on real option started a li饥le late，and is still at the stage of 甘leory introduction， scholars just tend ωemphasize the option na阳re of the land ，but little of them has done in-d叩th study on foreign real option models and most of them directly use fmancial option pricing model (e.g. BS model) for pricing options for real es阳te development. These methods all b础。d on the assumption that 由e input value，such 剧也e present value of expected income and cost cash flow 臼 C町tainty value，which is unconvincing due ωthe high degree of unc町tainty of actual projects as well as the high complexity of domestic real es阳te market. ‘h 也is article we make real est耐 investment decisionmaking in uncertain environment as research object，fuzzy mathematics theory and real option thωry as 也eoretical basis，for the aDlbi伊ity nature of project investment costs and the estimate value of the expected value，we introduc创也z:zy numbersωestablish a fuzzy real option pricing model for real estate development proj臼t (也创始，也e decision-m ak:ing ‘ model)，assuming that the present value of cash flow of expected income and ω锐，由e 币 risk仕ee interest rate are 臼zzy numbers or fuzzy variables，阳mak:e improvement for 、‘ the original B-S formula，由.us we can mak:e quantitatively analyze and identify the value of opportunities and management flexibility，and then the empirical analysis is conducted，ω