岷江中上游及青衣江流域近50年来降水变化特征剖析.docVIP

岷江中上游及青衣江流域近50年来降水变化特征剖析 　　摘要：利用岷江中上游及青衣江流域内松潘、成都、雅安、乐山4个气象站点1951─2001年共51年的降水资料，运用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法、Morlet小波变换等方法，分析了降水变化特征。结果表明：①4站年内降水集中在汛期4─9月，均占全年降水的80％以上。②4站年降水量的年际变化趋势不明显，松潘站在1958─1975和1985─2001两个时间段内降水减少，减少趋势不显著；雅安站降水呈一致减少趋势，但趋势不显著；成都站从1969年降水开始减少，且1996─2001年降水减少趋势显著；乐山站从1967年开始降水呈减少趋势，且1991─2001年降水减少趋势显著。③松潘和乐山站的降水量存在明显的年际和年代际振荡周期，而雅安和成都站的年代际周期不明显。?? 　　关键词：岷江中上游及青衣江流域；降水；趋势；降水周期?? 　　中图分类号：P333.2 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-1683（2008）03-0046-03?? 　　 　　Characteristics of Precipitation in Recent 50 Years in Minjiang Upriver and Qingyijiang River BasinZHANG Ming-zhu??1,2??,YU Xuan??2,SONG Xin-shan??1，YAN Deng-hua??2，YIN Ji-guo??2，HU Dong-lai??1,2???? 　　（1.School of Environment,Donghua University,Shanghai 200051,China;??2.China Institution of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100044,China）?? 　　Abstract: 　　The precipitation data of 1951─2001 at Songpan、Chengdu、Yaan and Leshan weather station in Minjiang Upriver and Qingyijiang River Basin were analyzed by Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet transform.It is reviewed that: ①the most annual precipitation focused in flood season,accounted for more than 80% of the total; ②the changing trends of precipitation of the four stations were not evident.The two descending time areas at Songpan station were 1958─1975 and 1985─2001,and the trend was unapparent; The descending trend of Yaan station was also unconspicuous;The precipitation of Chengdu station had reduced since 1969 and got a obvious declining in 1996─2001;The precipitation of Leshan descending obviously in 1991─2001;③the precipitation at Songpan and Leshan appeared obviously annually and interdecadal oscillation periods,and the interdecadal periods are inapparent at Yaan and Chengdu station.?? 　　Key words:Minjiang upriver and Qingyijiang river basin;precipitation;trend;precipitation cycle 　　 　　1 研究背景?? 　　随着全球变暖加剧，气候变化的影响受到人们广泛关注，众多学者对气温和降水变化进行了大量研究[1-2]。降水是衡量一个地区水资源量的重要指标，对人类经济和社会的发展有着重要作用[3]。岷江中上游和青衣江流域是我国西南水能开发和经济社会发展的关键支撑地区，也是我国西南地区生态保护与修复