美国高盛公司股票价值分析.pdf

Stock Valuation: The Case of Goldman Sachs 1 Preface Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE stock ticker: GS) is one of the leading investment banks and a Fortune 500 firm, with its IPO in 1999. In this paper, we will present a detailed stock analysis on GS stock. Our paper will focus on two aspects: 1. Illustrate investment banking industry competition drivers. 2. Value GS stock with three methods: Dividends Discount Model (DDM), Price/Earning Multiple and Residual income method. Contents 1. IntroductionPage 4 2. Investment Banking Industry OverviewPage 5 2.1 Industry OverviewPage 5 2.1.1 Business Segments in Investment BankingPage 5 2.1.2 Industry Trends Page 6 2.2 Competition drivers in Investment Banking IndustryPage 8 3. Goldman Sachs Group OverviewPage 13 3.1 Goldman Sachs Group InformationPage 13 3.2. Strategic analysis on GSPage 14 4. Financial Analysis on Goldman SachsPage 18 5. Risks Analysis on Goldman SachsPage 23 6. GS Valuation Ratios Page 25 7. Valuation Page 34 7.1 Review of Valuation TheoryPage 34 7.2. What is unique about investment bank valuation? Page 35 7.3. Price Multiples ValuationPage 38 7.4. Residual Income Valuation MethodPage 40 2 8. SummaryPage 41 ReferencesPage 59 Attachments Attachment 1: 2002 Investment Banking League TablePage 42 Attachment 2: Investment Banking Business in 2002 Page 46 Attachment 3: GS Management Team ProfilePage 50 Attachment 4: Goldman Sachs IPO in 1999Page 53 Attachment 5: Selected GS financial StatementsPage 55 Charts in Main Text Chart 1: Major Trend--ConsolidationPage 7 Chart 2: Segments Trends AnalysisPage 8 Chart 3: ROE of Industry LeadersPage 8 Chart 4: Major Cost Driver--SalaryPage 10 Chart 5: GS Common-Size Income Statement Page 18 Chart 6: GS Five-Year Stock ChartPage 25 Chart 7: GS Valuation Ratios on July 11, 2003Page 26 3 1. Introduction 1.1 Problem Area and Objective This paper