交通流建模及城市路网交通状态分析-模式识别与智能系统专业论文.docx

4． 4． 提出了一种多车辆合作驾驶模型——前向速度差跟驰模型。模型中把前方n辆车的 速度差作为一个整体来进行分析，考虑前方任意数量车辆速度差信息对车流运动的 影响。根据分析，该模型优于现有的前向优化速度跟驰模型因为它在模型实施时比 前向优化速度模型更加实际、合理。通过线性稳定性分析我们得到了该模型的稳定 性条件，并用约化摄动法推导出描述稳定区域、亚稳态区域和不稳定区域对应的密 度波方程——Bu喀ers方程、KdV方程和mKdV方程。当”=0，1时，该模型分别退 化为优化速度模型和全速度差模型，当前方更多车辆的速度差信息加入车辆交互 时，仿真试验表明该模型对交通拥堵具有有效地缓解作用。 5． 提出了一种新的城市道路交通状态估计方法，该方法以悉尼协调自适应交通系统 (SCATS)采集的交通数据为出发点，结合交通流宏观模型及其衍生的交通波理论 对城市有向路段建立数学模型并对交通状态进行估计，实地检验结果表明该估计方 法可以较好地近似拟和实际交通速度。此外，我们还设计了一个交通用地理信息系 统，结合计算的交通状态，构成了一个完整的交通信息系统，该系统可以用不同颜 色实时显示上海市城区路网各路段当前的交通状况。 关键词：微观交通流模型，中观交通流模型，宏观交通流模型，车辆跟驰模型，稳定性，密 度波。 II Traffic Traffic flow modeling and traffic status analysis for city road network ABSTRACT Reasonably accurate mathematical modelling of traffic flow is essentially important not only for better understanding ofthe collective behaviour oftraffic，but also for analyzing flow conditions， designing efficient control strategies，and etc．Over the past decades，many researchers with differem background had made intensive studies this subject and wide range of traffic flow theories and models had been developed．In this dissertation，based the existing microscopic models for traffic flow，several improved mathematical models presented，and the corresponding theoretical analysis and numerical simulation conducted．MoreoveL the application research of macroscopic traffic flow model has been used in city road network of Shanghai with the real—time data collected by under-ground detecting loops of SCATS system．The major contributes ofthe thesis follows． 1． We propose two improved car-following models of nearest—neighbor interaction：the adaptive headway model and the velocity-difference—separation model．In the first modified model，a new nonlinear term，which attempts to adjust the inter-vehicle spacing to certain desired value，is proposed to overcome some deficiencies in the GHR mode In the velocity—difference·separation model of car4bllowing,we think the model should make allowance ofthe effect ofthe inter-car spacing independently oft