金融政策与中国房地产周期波动-区域经济学专业论文.docxVIP

II II Abstract The nationwide housing reform was implemented in 1991, since then the real estate market of China had been formed, and turned into the development. There have been several significant periodical fluctuations of the real estate during the growing course of two decades. Severe cyclical fluctuations of real property are not conducive to the healthy development of itself, and will bring impacts and effects to the overall macroeconomic. The financial crisis in 2008 had provided a strong proof from the reality to prove this. As one of the major control policies, financial policy has an irreplaceable effect on stabilizing the cyclical fluctuations of real estate. This paper describes the basic theories of financial policy and periodical fluctuations of real estate briefly, and then reviewed the relevant literature on the both sides of the theories of real estate cycle and the influences of monetary policy exertiong to cyclical fluctuations of real estate on this basis of the front; Through analysis of the mechanism, combining the realistic descriptions of financial policy and real estate’s periodical fluctuations, divide real estate cycle of our country. According to the result of classification and review of policy implementation, discuss the effectiveness among different cycles, summarize the trends of changes in policies and analyze the existence of the policy cycle; Then supported by empirical tests, analyze the effects of interest rate policy and credit policies of real estate which are the main financial policies on stabilizing fluctuations in the real estate cycle. Empirical findings suggest that the interest rate and credit policies as the representatives of financial policies have strong effects on smoothing fluctuations in the real estate cycle. By contrast, the credit policy has a more significant effect; Finally, integrates main conclusions and gives recommendations on how to smooth periodical fluctuations of real estate. Key words: financial pol