基于博弈论组合赋权的城市养老地产开发适宜性评价.docx

基于博弈论组合赋权的城市养老地产开 发适宜性评价 李素红方洁苑颂 河北工业大学经济管理学院 摘要： 以国际权威机构典型观点的高频指标为基础，利用R聚类一变异系数分析相结 合的方法构建了能综合反映生态环境、社会环境和经济环境的城市养老地产开发 适宜性评价指标体系。借鉴博弈论思想，通过极小化G1法得到主观权重和余弦 夹角法客观权重之间的偏差，确定各个指标的组合权重，构建基于博弈论组合 赋权的城市养老地产开发适宜性评价模型，对2014年全国35个大中城市的养老 地产开发适宜性进行实证分析。根据评价结果，将35个城市分为重点发展城市、 潜力发展城市和不适宜发展城市三类，三类城市养老地产开发的主要制约因素 分别为生态环境、社会环境和经济环境。 关键词： 城市养老地产;R聚类一变异系数;博弈论;组合赋权;适宜性评价; 作者简介：李素红（1978-）,女，河南省汤阴人，博士，副教授，硕士生导师, 研究方向为房地产项目管理与风险控制。 作者简介：方洁（1994-）,女（满族），河北省承德人，硕士研究生，研究方 向为房地产项目管理与风险控制。 收稿日期：2017-11-17 基金：国家哲学社会科学基金项目“符合中国国情的住房保障和供应体系研究” （编号:14BJY060） Suitability Evaluation on Urban Pension Real Estate Development by Combined Weigh t Met hod Based on Game Theory LI Su-hong FANG Jie YUAN Song School of Economics and Marrngenient, Hebei University of Technology; Abstract： Based on authorities typical and high-frequency indicators, this paper used the method of R cluster-coefficient of variation analysis to establish the suitability evaluation indicator system of urban pension real estate development which could reflect the three aspects of the ecological environment, social environment and economic environment. Based on the thought of game theory, the combination weights of each index was determ ined by min imiNing the deviation bet wee n the sub jec tive weigh t obta incd by G1 met hod and the objective weigh t obtained by the cosi nc an glc method. And the suitability evaluation model of urban pension real estate development was constructed on combination weighting method based on game theory. Then this paper made an empirical analysis on 35 large and medium cities in China at 2014. According to the resuIts of the evaluation, 35 cities could be divided into three categories: The prioritized developmental citi es, the potential cities and the unsu it able cities. The main constraints for the development of the three categories of urban pension real estate were ecological environment, social environment and economic envirorunent respectively. Keyword： urban pension real estate; R cluster-