基于遗传算法的大型电力变压器内部故障预测模型研究-电气工程专业论文.docxVIP

重庆大学硕士学位论文 重庆大学硕士学位论文 英文摘要 ABSTRACT Power transformers are key elements in power system．The operation reliability of power transformer is related to the safety and stability ofpower system directly．Fault of power transformer may cause long interruptions in supply,costly repairs and loss revenue．It’S important that forceasting the faults in power transformer． In this paper,the power transformer interior fault diagnosis technique based the dissolved gas in oil analysis and the principles of genetic algorithm are analyzed．The forecasting models for power transformer interior fault are proposed based the grey prediction model．The genetic algorithm is applied to estimating optimum coefficients ofthis forecasting model．The research achievements are followed： Studying the shortages and the improved methods of GM(1，1)grey prediction model，considering the characteristic of the transformer chromatographic data，bring forward the method for converting series of data which sampled in different interval into series of data in the same interval．The weakening operator is applied to reconstruct the transformer chromatographic data for attenuating or eliminating the influence of randomicity．The improved prediction model for power transformer interior fault is constructeded．The applicability of this model is wider than GM(1，1)grey prediction model． The forecasting model based on genetic algorithm for power transformer interior fault is proposed．Programs for modeling and forecasting based on MATLAB programed in this paper．It is simple and effective．The results of prediction examples show that this forecasting model is effective for forecasting the transformer interior fault． The and the classes of G强ror of this prediction model are analyzed．Some effective methods for verifying the grade of this prediction model adequacy are presented．The results of examples in this paper show that