海峡两岸金融合作对贸易发展的影响研究-国际贸易学专业论文.docxVIP

河北工业大学硕士学位论文 海峡两岸金融合作对贸易发展的影响研究 摘 要 近年来，随着海峡两岸经贸往来的日趋频繁，大陆地区十八大报告提出的保持对 台政策的“五个不会变”，以及台湾地区提出的“黄金十年，和平两岸”政治远景， 为两岸投资、经贸和金融等领域的合作与交流营造了良好的经济和政治环境。当前， 尤以两岸金融和贸易领域的合作为世人瞩目。台湾地区国民党重新执政以来，两岸在 经贸和金融领域的合作取得了显著成效，两岸《海峡两岸金融合作协议》、《两岸经济 合作架构协议》和《海峡两岸服务贸易协议》等一系列合作框架协议的签署，推动了 两岸贸易和金融合作的深入发展。 本文从两岸金融合作对贸易发展的影响视角探讨两岸如何加强金融合作与交流 以推动两岸贸易的发展。通过对当前两岸金融合作与贸易发展现状的分析，得出两岸 金融合作与贸易发展中面临着机构互设不对称性、政治不确定性、监管层次较低、法 律不健全以及贸易发展不平衡性等问题。而后提出了两岸金融合作通过规模经济、技 术进步、分散风险以及金融制度等机制对贸易发展产生影响，同时论述了两岸银行业 务合作对两岸贸易发展的促进作用。根据收集的两岸金融与贸易数据，通过构建 VAR 模型实证检验了两岸金融合作对贸易发展的影响，得出两岸金融合作各领域对两岸贸 易规模和结构具有促进作用，并通过脉冲响应函数和方差分析得出其影响时滞关系和 贡献程度。最后，基于实证分析结果，并结合当前两岸金融合作中存在的问题，从促 进两岸贸易发展的角度提出了深化两岸金融合作的政策建议。 关键字：海峡两岸 金融合作 贸易发展 I PAGE PAGE IV ABSTRACT In recent years, by the advent of increasingly frequent Cross-Strait economic and trade exchanges, Report to the Eighteenth National Congress of the CPC has put forward to policy toward Taiwan of “five policies not change”, and Taiwan has come up with the political vision of “golden decade, cross-strait peace”. So a good economic and political environment has been created in Cross-Strait investment, trade and financial cooperation and communication. Especially, an extensive attention has been attracted in the fields of Cross-Strait financial cooperation and trade. Since the KMT returned to power in Taiwan, Cross-strait economic and financial cooperation has made remarkable achievements. A series of cooperation framework agreement signed, such as Cross-Strait financial cooperation agreement, Cross-Strait economic cooperation framework agreement and Cross-Strait Agreement on Trade in Services, has promoted Cross-Strait trade and financial cooperation in-depth development. From perspective of the impact of Cross-Strait financial cooperation on bilateral trade development, this article discusses how to strengthen cross-strait financial cooperation and communication in order to promote the development of cross-strait trade. By analyzing the current status of cross-strait financi