长期风险跟金融新秩序（04-03-05)文档资料.pptVIP

Fundamental Long-Term Risks And the New Financial Order Prof. Robert J. Shiller Yale University Financial Modernization Fundamental role of financial institutions Manage risks Maintain incentives Effective financial institutions are found in all successful economies Institutions must continually be adapted to take account of changing nature of risks, new technology China’s Spectacular Modernization Since 1990 Established stock market Issued shares to public Established futures markets Created Insurance industry Personal credit/Mortgage Speculation Human impulse towards gambling, must be directed towards constructive ends Capitalism is a set of rules that redirects the human gambling urge in constructive directions Capitalism is vulnerable to market-generated instabilities China’s Uncertainties Will the spectacular economic growth continue? As low wage advantage gradually disappears, will be harder to sustain growth Possible disruptions of smooth-functioning economic system can slow growth. Growth of 3% a year vs. 9% a year: means China overall catches up to advanced countries in 90 years instead of 30 years Economic Inequality Economic incentives must allow for some chance of success—and of failure Some inequality is necessary Worldwide trend towards greater inequality is seen in China as well China’s Gini coefficient has risen from 0.33 in 1980 to 0.46 in 2000, not just due to farmers’ incomes Important Reasons for Growing Chinese Inequality Transition to market economy in China is not making everyone successful at once New information technology appears to tend to concentrate wealth (in China and elsewhere) Assembly line workers Translators Chess players Winner-Take-All Effect of Information Technology Information technology allows search to find the best product, and replication of the best product Phonographs and singers Television and actors and athletes Rapid acceleration of information technology may create the same effect in many more occupations Norbert Wi