铁路运输与区域经济系统相关性与协调性定量评价.docVIP

文章编号：1003?1421(2010)02?0014?04中图分类号：F530 文献标识码：A铁路运输与区域经济系统相关性与协调性定量评价 Quantitative Evaluation of Correlation and Coordination between RailwayTransportation and Regional Economy 余沛，杜文，池茂儒 (1?西南交通大学交通运输学院，四川成都610031,2?西南交通大学牵引动力国家重点实验室，四川成都610031) (L College ot Traffic Transportation, Southwest JiaatorW University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610031, China, 2. Traction Power State Key Laboratory, Southwesi Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610031, China) 摘要：交通运输与区域经济是相互影响、相互促进和相互制约的两个系统，两者 之间只有形成一种动态平衡协调关系，才能相互促进，协调发展。利用相关性分 析与灰色关联度模型对铁路运输与河南省区域经济两个系统的相关性进行了定 量分析；对于交通运输与区域经济发展的协调性，运用多维灰色动态协调模型， 进行数学建模分析。通过运用多种量化工具.分析结果表明，铁路运输与区域经 济发展Z间相关性极高，应加强铁路运输适应区域经济发展的需求。根据上述结 论，提出相关建议。 关键词：铁路运输；区域经济；相关性；协调性 Abstract: The railway transportation and regional economy are two interactive, mutually promoting and mutually restrictive systems. They can promote each other and develop coordinately only when a dynamic balance relationship between these two systems is formed. The correlation between railway transportation and regional economy of Henan Province is quantitatively analyzed by utilizing coiTelation analysis and grey coiTelation model. The coordination between transportation and regional economic development is analyzed by establishing mathematical model with multidimensional grey dynamic coordination model. The relsults of analysis using several quantitative tools show that the correlation between raitway transportation and ragional economic dewlopment is extremely high, and the railway transportation still cannot completely adapt the demand of regional economic development. According to the above conclusion, the corresponding suggestions are proposerd? Koy words: Railway Transportation; Regional Economy; Con^dation; Coordination 铁路是国民经济与社会发展的重要戴体，是国民经济发展的慕础性与先导性 产业。虽然我国铁路运营里程住总量上尚处于短缺状态，路网结构对国上的覆盖 性尚有较大的差距，但在各种运输方式组成的交通运输体系中，铁路运输始终处 于骨干地位，对国民经济发展起到了强有力的支持作用。2008年全国铁路旅客 发送量完成146 193万人，旅客周转量完成7 778.60亿人.Km；全国铁路货物 发送量完成329 035万全国铁路货物周转量完成24 817.46亿km。截止到 2008年年底，我国铁路营业里程达8万km.里程长度