山西省水资源承载力评价分析-环境工程专业论文.docxVIP

I I II II 摘要 目前，水资源短缺已经成为制约山西社会、经济发展的瓶颈。研究水资源 承载力，有助于更好地理解水资源系统对社会发展的支撑作用，认识经济、社 会、资源与环境协调发展的关系，实现社会的可持续发展。 本文以山西省水资源承载力为研究对象，主要研究内容如下： 1.构建了水资源承载力评价指标体系。 本文在对国内外水资源承载力研究进展及相关理论进行分析的基础上，根 据水资源承载力的内涵和特性以及指标体系的构建原则，建立了包含目标层、 系统层和指标层三个层次的水资源承载力评价指标体系。其中，系统层由水资 源系统、社会系统、经济系统及生态环境系统构成。 2.利用已构建的指标体系对山西省水资源承载力进行评价。 在水资源承载力指标体系的评价中，针对目前运用主成分分析法进行评价 研究出现的不足，对数据进行了同趋势化和均值化处理，利用改进后的主成分 分析法实现了降维。 在确定主成分权重时，利用信息效用值代替方差贡献率，引入熵值法对主 成分进行更客观的赋权并计算承载力得分，将主成分分析的降维功能与熵值法 的赋权功能相结合，优势互补，使计算更加简便，评价结果更加客观、科学。 对山西省水资源承载力的状态进行了研究，反映了 1991 年至 2007 年水资 源承载力的变化趋势。 3.引入宏观指标对未来山西省水资源承载力进行预测。 引入宏观指标对水资源承载力进行绝对数量的研究，反映了未来山西省水 资源供需状况及山西省水资源可以承载的经济和人口规模。 【关键词】水资源承载力；指标体系；主成分分析；熵值；宏观指标 Abstract Water resource shortage is becoming the bottleneck for Shanxi province’s development at present. The study of water resource carrying capacity in Shanxi province helps to understand the important role of water resource system which supports the development of social better, realize the coordinated development relationship among economic, social, resource and environment, and make the sustainable development of social comes true. The research object of this paper is water resource carrying capacity in Shanxi province and the main jobs are as follows: Constructing the evolution index system of water resource carrying capacity Based on the analysis of the domestic and international research as well as related theoretical, the paper constructed an index system of water resource carrying capacity which contained three hierarchies as the target layer, the system layer and the index layer according to the contents and characteristics of water resources carrying capacity. Among them, the system layer consisted of water resource systems, social systems, economic systems and eco-system. After improving the principal component analysis method, this paper evaluated water resource carrying capacity in Shanxi province by using the index system established. In the evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity index syst