两部制电价对发电容量投资引导作用的SD分析.docxVIP

中国经济改革 两部制电价对发电容量投资引导作用的 SD 分析 邵留国 黄健柏 扶缚龙 中南大学商学院 湖南长沙 410083 摘 要：2005 年，国家发改委规定，发电侧电力市场竞价上网后实施两部制电价，并为此颁布了一套实施方案。但国内外对两部制电价引导发电容量投资的效果却存在不少分歧，因此，为检验这些不同观点，本文基于 Vensim 软件，构建了一个电力市场价格系统动力学模型，重点研究自由竞争的区域电力市场中，两部制电价和发电容量投资间的反馈关系。根据计算机模拟及相关分析，本文认为，国家发改委颁布的两部制电价实施方案能较快地实现发电侧区域市场供需平衡，不易造成容量投资波动，并且市场竞争形成的两部制电价构成比较合理。 关键词：区域电力市场 两部制电价 发电容量投资 系统动力学 A System Dynamics Analysis About Leading Effect Which Two-Parts Electricity Price On Generation Capacity Investment Shao Liuguo Huang Jianbai Fu Fulong Business School of Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410083 Abstract: In 2005, National Development and Reform Commission decided to implement two-parts electricity price after generation competition was applied in generation market, and promulgated a set of implement plans. But there are many different opinions on the leading effect which two-parts electricity price on generation capacity investment, therefore, a systems dynamics model about electricity price in power market was constructed based on the Vensim software for examining these different viewpoints. The model focuses on feedback relations between two-parts electricity price and generation capacity investment in free competition regional electricity market. According to the computer simulation and the correlation analysis, the following conclusions were made: this two-parts electricity price can realize the equilibrium in regional generation market easily and will not create capacity investment fluctuation, furthermore, the constitution of two-parts electricity price formed by market competition is quite reasonable. Keywords: regional electricity market two-parts electricity price generation capacity investment system dynamics 一、问题的提出 电价改革作为电力体制改革的重要组成部分，对建立和培育电力市场、优化电力资源配置具有重要意义。从1985年以来，我国电价形成机制经历了一系列变革，先后实行了“还本付息电价”、“燃运加价”、“经营起点价”等多种电价政策，对扭转我国长期存在的缺电局面，起到了积极作用。但到2002年底，随着厂网分开和电力市场改革试点的推进，原有的政府定价方式受到空前挑战，加上2003年全国大范围的“电荒”，建立既能吸引电力长期投资又能通过价格杠杆达到电力供求动态平衡的电价形成机制，就显得极为迫切。 2005年3月，为了推进电价改革的实施工作，国家发改委在《上网电价管理暂行