碳关税对湖北省出口贸易的影响及对策研究—以机电产品为例.docxVIP

PAGE 8 沈洋：碳关税对湖北省出口贸易的影响及对策研究 摘 要 2009年美国颁布《清洁能源安全法案》提出，从2020年开始将对进入美国市场但未达到碳减标准的产品拟征碳关税，势必会对我国产品出口产生巨大影响。近年来，我国二氧化碳排放量随着经济的高速发展呈现上升趋势，作为长江经济带经济发展重要引擎之一的湖北省，出口贸易发展迅猛，占比最大的机电产品近年来对外贸易出口额也是不断增长。一旦开征碳关税，湖北省机电产品的出口贸易会受到什么样的影响，对湖北省出口贸易经济的影响程度是怎么样的，湖北省政府应该采取何种政策来应对碳关税等都是我们应该探讨的问题。 本文从分析湖北省机电产品的出口贸易现状出发，发现湖北省机电产品出口额持续增长，贸易顺差逐渐扩大，出口结构逐步优化。同时，从理论角度分析碳关税对机电产品出口的影响机制表现为通过成本增加以及市场需求减少的双重作用，碳关税会逐步降低机电产品的出口额。在此基础上，本文以碳关税税额作为自变量，以机电产品出口额作为因变量构建立VAR计量模型，验证碳关税以及机电产品出口额之间的相关关系。实证分析发现，碳关税本质上作为一种贸易壁垒对机电产品出口贸易会在长期均衡的情况下产生负面影响，并且在不同梯度的碳关税率下，对机电产品出口额的影响弹性有逐渐加大趋势。当碳关税税率为30美元/吨时，碳关税每提高1%，机电产品出口额将会减少2.22%；当碳关税税率为60美元/吨时，碳关税每提高1%，机电产品出口额将减少2.24%。论文最后从政府和企业两个层面出发，为湖北省机电产品出口应对即将开征的碳关税带来的负面影响提出了相关对策和建议。 关键词：碳关税；出口贸易；机电产品；VAR模型 Abstract In 2009, the United States promulgated the Clean Energy Security Act, proposing to introduce carbon tariffs on products which will enter into the US market but not reach to the carbon reduction standards from 2020. That will be bound to have a great impact on Chinas product exports. In recent years, Chinas carbon dioxide emissions have shown an upward trend with the rapid development of the economy. As one of the important engines of economic development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, Hubei Province has experienced rapid development in export trade. The largest proportion of mechanical and electrical products in foreign trade in recent years is also growing rapidly. Once the carbon tariff is imposed, what is the impact of the export trade of mechanical and electrical products in Hubei Province? What is the impact on Hubei Based on the analysis of the export trade status of mechanical and electrical products in Hubei Province, this paper finds that the export volume of mechanical and electrical products in Hubei Province continues to grow, the trade surplus gradually expands, and the export structure is gradually optimized. At the same time, from a theoretical perspective, the impact mechanism of carbon tariffs on the export of mechanical and electrical prod