非线性地流-8-模式参数（参数化方案）计划.pptVIP

物理过程 动力框架 例子3 模式参数（参数化方案）计划 The international Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX, 1996):The primary goal of MOPEX is to develop techniques for the a priori estimation of the parameters used in land surface parameterization schemes of atmospheric and hydrological models. The Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS, 1999): contribute improved understanding of continental surface and near-surface processes through international intercomparison of current state-of-the-art parameterization schemes employed in coupled climate, atmospheric and earth system models. ……….. But Models are rapidly becoming increasingly more complex and computationally intensive; Growing in dimensionality (both process and parameter); May be spatially and temporally variable; As they progressively and more rigorously reflect our growing understanding (or hypotheses) about the underlying real-world systems; Its widespread applicability can be inhibited by computational expense; Reduce the parameter dimensionality to improve the model simulation ability Gradient-Based Method Local One-Factor-At-a-Time Method (OAT) Global Factorial Design Global Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA) Global Variance-Based Methods Global Globally Aggregated Measures of Local Sensitivities Global CNOP-P Global …….. To identify the parameter sensitivity OAT PERT : ±10%, ± 20%, ± 30% 特点： （1）Computationally efficient （2）Low computational demand （3）Local slope; Global (Population sample-based) sensitivity analysis （4）Not detect factor interactions Monte Carlo-type stratified sampling Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) 特点： （1）Detect factor interactions （2）High computational demand （3）Global sensitivity analysis Two-stage method Gan, Y., X.-Z. Liang, Q. Duan, H. I. Choi, Y. Dai, and H. Wu (2015), Stepwise sensitivity analysis from qualitative to quantitative: Application to the terrestrial hydrological modeling of a Conjunctive Surface-Subsurface Proce