非线性地流-5-（非）线性（不）稳定性.pptVIP

（非）线性（不）稳定性 稳定性定义和理论 平衡态：鞍点、焦点（源或汇）、极限环、 周期解（中心） 混沌和分岔（控制参数）现象 非线性系统：多平衡态（Lorenz系统和草原生态系统）； 可预报性的基本理论（Lorenz，1963） 稳定系统是无限可预报的 不稳定系统的可预报性有一定限度！ 不可预报：混沌 可预报：预报误差的上限，预报时效等 数值预报 不确定性 的来源 初始条件 边界条件 模式 初始条件 观测误差：仪器误差（系统误差，随机误差），观测记录 数据同化误差：数据质量控制，同化方法 所有模式变量、在每个时刻、观测站点和模式格点 边界条件 下垫面： Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) Soil moisture, snow cover, roughness length, vegetation properties Prescribed boundary conditions (e.g., vegetation or soil type) Uncertainties in Bottom Boundary Conditions Ocean related parameters Tropical Pacific SST Arabian Sea SST North Pacific SST Tropical Atlantic SST North Atlantic SST Sea Ice Global SST (MIPs) Land related parameters Mountain /No-Mountain Forest /No-Forest (Deforestation) Surface Albedo (Desertification) Soil Wetness Surface Roughness Vegetation Snow Cover 模式误差 物理过程的数学描述 物理参数 编码误差 …….. 天气和气候的可预报性 初始误差 模式误差 第一类可预报性问题 第二类可预报性问题 Lorenz (1975) Singular Vector (Lorenz, 1965) Breed Vector CNOP (Mu et al., 2003) ... Stochastic Optimal (Moore and Kleeman, 1999) Forcing Singular Vector (Barkmeijer et al., 2003) CNOP-P (Mu et al., 2010) Nonlinear Forcing Singular Vector (Duan and Zhou, 2013) Lyapunov index or Vector (Fraedrich, 1986,1987) 最优初始扰动 最优参数扰动 最优倾向扰动 Lyapunov vectors Lyapunov vectors are defined along the trajectories of a dynamical system, and an infinitesimal perturbation will grow asymptotically, exponentially at an average rate given by the Lyapunov exponents. Bred Vectors (BVs) Breeding is a nonlinear generalization of the method to obtain leading Lyapunov vectors, which are the sustained fastest growing perturbations. Bred Vectors (like leading Lyapunov Vectors) are independent of the norm and represent the shapes of the instabilities growing upon the evolving flow. Singular Vectors (SVs) Singular vectors are the linear perturbations of a control forecast that grow fastest within a certain time