居民储蓄影响因素分析.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 22 居民储蓄影响因素分析 摘要：我国改革开放以来，我国的国民经济得到了前所未有的的高速发展,人民收入水平有了很大的提高,与之伴随的是我国城乡居民储蓄存款的迅猛增长,并已成为我国经济生活中人们关注的热点之一。占目前国内生产总值半数的居民储蓄存款在国民经济中扮演着举足轻重的作用,是国家与银行，企业建设与发展的资金后备力量和保证。高储蓄给我国经济发展带来充足的资金来源，是支持经济快速增长的重要动力，与此同时，也给我国经济发展带来很大挑战，例如我国国内储蓄水平远高于投资水平，给投资造成巨大的效率损失。同时高储蓄也会抑制消费行为的进行，不利于经济的发展。本文对导致居民高储蓄现象的主要因素进行了分析,这些因素主要包括:GDP总额、银行存储利率，物价水平，通货膨胀率以及金融方面如股市，通过计量经济模型的建立，用回归分析的方法利用计算机eviews软件对这些主要因素进行了分析，从而发现其中的内在联系，得出合理的结果，并且针对现在搞储蓄的情况，以及如何保持合理规模、适度居民储蓄以促进经济持续、快速、健康发展提出一些个人的见解和建议。 关键词： 高储蓄影响因素经济模型回归分析 Analysis of factors influencing national savings Abstract: Since the reform and opening-up of our country, the?national economy of our country has been unprecedented in the rapid development, peoples income levels have greatly improved, along with is the rapid growth of savings deposits of urban and rural residents in China, and has already become one of the focus that people pay attention to the economic life of our country. At present, half of the total domestic production savings deposits in the national economy plays a decisive role, is the country and the bank, the enterprise construction and development of the reserve force of funds and guarantee. High savings to the economic development of our country has adequate sources of funding, support rapid economic growth an important driving force. At the same time, it to Chinas economic development bring great challenges, such as Chinas savings level is much higher than investment level, cause great loss of efficiency to investment. At the same time, high savings will restrain the consumption behavior, which is not conducive to the development of economy. In this paper, the main factors which cause the high savings phenomenon are analyzed, these factors mainly include: GDP, bank deposit rates and prices at the retail level, consumer price level and financial aspects such as the stock market, through establishing econometric model, using regression analysis method using computer software Eviews to these main factors are analy