科技创新与经济发展的耦合关系分析.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 23 科技创新与经济发展的耦合关系分析 摘要：本文为了研究科技创新与经济发展的关系，选取了2005-2014年期间我国的科技创新和经济发展的时间序列数据。首先，选取一个经济发展指标，一个科技投入指标，一个科技产出指标，分别对经济发展与科技投入、经济发展与科技创新做格兰杰因果检验，得到科技投入、产出与经济发展的因果关系。然后，选取一组科技创新指标，选取一组经济发展指标，用两组指标数据进行典型相关分析。之后，根据实证分析得到相应的结论，整体上，科技创新与经济发展存在耦合关系；局部上，科技创新与经济发展不是单向或双向的因果关系。最后，利用实证分析结果，联系实际，借鉴已有研究成果，分析存在的问题，提出有效的建议。 关键词：科技创新经济发展格兰杰因果检验典型相关分析 The Relationship between Technological Innovation and Economic Development Abstract: In order to study the relationship of science and technology innovation and economic development, we have selected time series data that about science and technology innovation and economic development during the 2005-2014. First, we select an economic development indicators, a science and technology input indicators, and a science and technology output indicators. Then, in order to get the relationship of science and technology inputs, outputs and economic development, we do Granger causality test with three indicators respectively. Then, we select a set of indicators of science and technology innovation, and select a group of indicators economic development. Then we do canonical correlation analysis with two sets of metrics data. Then, according to the empirical analysis, we obtain the corresponding conclusions. On the whole, there is a coupling relationship between technological innovation and economic development; the local, there is not a one-way or two-way causality between technological innovation and economic development. Finally, we use the results of empirical analysis, linking to the practice, drawing on research results, analyzes the existing problems, and propose effective recommendations. Keywords: Science and technology innovation Economic development Investment in science and technology Canonical correlation analysis 一、引言 (一)背景简介 自改革开放至今，由于我国经济的迅速发展，中国一跃变为全球排名第二的经济体。之所以取得如此之大的成就，与国家对科技的不断投入息息相关。“科学技术是第一生产力”，“自主创新是发展的第一竞争力”、“引领发展的第一动力是创新驱动，所以我国必须要把创新摆在发展的全局的核心位置”这一系列科学论断的提出，表明我国对科技创新的发展及其所起到的作用放到了一个高度的位置。在我国“十三五”的规划中，明确提出了要将提高自