人民币升值对中国FDI的影响.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 21 人民币升值对中国FDI的影响 摘要：外商直接投资本质上是以货币形式进行跨国流动。汇率，作为各国货币兑换比例的汇率水平以及汇率政策，必然影响到外商直接投资的流动规模和方向。本文在借鉴国内外学者的研究成果基础上，结合中国实际国情，建立实证模型，采用对我国直接投资最多、最有代表性的33个国家和地区的外商直接投资额、实际有效汇率等面板数据进行分析，从而论证了人民币汇率变动对我国FDI的影响关系。本次研究发现人民币汇率的变动对中国吸收FDI有很大的影响。实证研究结果表明，人民币实际我国实际利用FDI流入与实际有效汇率之间存在显著的正相关性。即当人民币实际汇率RER上升时，会带来外商直接投资的流入。本文从在当前研究结论不一的情况下做出合理的解释，并且将汇率波动性、市场规模、外贸依存度、劳动力成本等因素纳入考察范围，具有非常强的现实意义和理论价值。 关键词：汇率外商直接投资人民币 The Impact of the Appreciation of the RMB Exchange Rate of FDI in China Abstract: Foreign direct investment is essentially a kind of form of cross-border currency flows. Exchange rate, as a proportion of national currency convertibility, and exchange rate policies will inevitably affect the size and direction of FDI flows. Foreign direct investment is essentially a kind of form of cross-border currency flows. Exchange rate, as a proportion of national currency convertibility, and exchange rate policies will inevitably affect the size and direction of FDI flows. Based upon domestic and foreign academic research and combined with Chinas actual conditions, this paper establishes an empirical model with the analysis of the panel data of foreign direct investment and real exchange rate of the 33 most representative countries and regions to Chinas direct investment，which demonstrate the impact of FDI on China relations. In the same time, this paper makes a reasonable explanation in the current varying study conclusions and the exchange rate volatility, market size, foreign trade dependence, labor costs and other factors are included in the scope of the study, which determines a very strong practical and theoretical value. Keywords: Exchange Rate Foreign Direct Investment RMB 一、引言 外商直接投资,也叫国际直接投资(FDI，Foreign Direct Investment ) ，它以控制经营管理权为核心，以获取利润为目的。由某一国家或地区的投资者对另一个国家或地区进行直接投资，以获得对投资企业的管理控制权和获取长期持续的利益的一种资本流动，外国直接投资已经成为跨越国界的资源流动越来越重要的渠道。根据相关研究表明，FDI的规模、结构和流向的迅速变化对世界各国的企业的国际竞争力、产业结构调整、国际收支平衡以及一国经济稳定持续发展产生了深远影响。 (一)我国外商直接投资状况 经历了30多年的发展历程， FDI在我国获得了巨大的成就。截至2013年年底，我国实际利用外商直接投资